Today's Observations

Dear Khairi, A new ME war might be in the cards, this summer perhaps it'll trump all negotiation (non)efforts. Massive preparation for war in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iran and the Persian Gulf (US), plus Ahmadinejads belligerence is all the trigger happy Israelis need to initiate a reshuffling of cards in the region. At the moment there is nothing open to negotiation and I think all except Mitchell and Obama understand this. Players are waiting for a fresh deck of cards and a new hand to start a new game! // If Obama succeeds in making a deal with the Chinese (stops the weapon sale to Taiwan for China agreeing to Iran sanctions; as he did with Russians by dropping plan for missile batteries in its “near Abroad”) then Obama may be able to force the Israelis to wait, otherwise a war is something even Americans may find useful before midterm elections. // I enjoyed watching the king’s interview with Fareed Zakaria. It looks like he is quite willing and able to lead Jordanians to a better life. But can Jordan and the monarchy survive another war in the Middle East? He is trying to keep the Palestinians out (the ones still in the West Bank) But I bet you that any Israeli looking at Israel’s map sees the West Bank as a “natural” part of Israel. It looks like a heart that shouldn’t be carved out!! The remaining choice would be to drive Palestinians to the other side of the river. At the moment it is not in the cards and the monarchy is safe . . . but after reshuffling the cards . . . Palestinians could be either part of Israel or part of Jordan. Two (3) state solution is dying fast. What do you think?

I don't know for how long, Rick, Mr. Abbas will be able to withstand US and international pressure to return to the table of neogtiations?. I mean he is saying now to the Israelis freeze the building of settlements for just 3 months. Probably if they wait, it might become freeze for a week !!. In any case, his recent overtures to Hamas, I think go to placate Palestinian public opinion before he returns to the table of neogtiations.

We’ve been wondering where our favorite neocon went. Welcome back Robert. Kick your shoes off and stick around for awhile.

I think the current impass and stagnation in the peace process Rick, make one think that unfortunately, this stagnation and impass will only be resolved through a major war that will shake up the region. After all, it is certainly in the interest of Israel to start such a war in order the deflect attention away from its stance regarding the peace process, while at the same time, it is certainly in the interest of Iran to start a war also, to deflect attention away from its nuclear progarmme. What remains really, is to guess where the next arena of this conflict will take place; Lebanon or Gaza?. As for Syrian threats and Israeli counter threats, the fact that there has been so much shouting from the roof tops so to speak at each other, means that, nothing really is likely to happen on the Golan front. When it comes to Iraq, I don't think the Obama administration has failed to notice that, it is now the Sunnis and the secular political forces whom need the USA, for the conduct of fair elections in Iraq. The situation is so delicate, that any false reading of the situation in Iraq, is likely to be interpreted as the US leaving the arena in favor of Iran.

Wow. Longest running international politics blog dialogue, gotta give you that.

President al-Assad thinks like you Khairi. ___ DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria accused Israel on Wednesday of pushing the Middle East toward a new war. ___ "All the facts point that Israel is driving the region toward war, not peace," the official Syrian news agency quoted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as saying during a meeting with Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos. ___ "Israel is not serious about wanting peace," he added. ___ During a subsequent news conference with Moratinos, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said Israel "was planting the seeds of the war atmosphere" by threatening attacks on Iran, Lebanon and the Gaza strip. ___ "I tell them (Israel), stop acting like thugs," Moualem told reporters in the Syrian capital Damascus. ___ "Do not test the resolve of Syria, you Israelis, you know that war this time will reach your cities. Go back to your senses and seek the road of peace," Moualem said.

So says Henry Kissinger in today’s WP. ___ Before the war, the equilibrium between Iraq and Iran was a principal geopolitical reality within the region. At that time, the government in Baghdad was a Sunni-run dictatorship. The Shiite-dominated, partly democratic structure that has emerged from the war has not yet found the appropriate balance among its Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish components. Nor is its long-term relationship to Iran settled. If radicals prevail in the Shiite part, and the Shiite part comes to dominate the Sunni and Kurdish regions, and if it then lines up with Tehran, we will witness -- and will have partially contributed to -- a fundamental shift in the balance of the region. ___ The outcome in Iraq will have profound consequences, above all, in Saudi Arabia, the key country in the Persian Gulf, as well as in the other Gulf states and in Lebanon, where Hezbollah, financed by Iran, is already a Shiite state within the state. The United States therefore has an important stake in a moderate evolution of Iraq's domestic and foreign policies. ___ I think that is a very good synopsis of the situation in the Middle East today Khairi. Our reckless and foolhardy intervention has destroyed a delicate balance of power between Iraq and Iran, Sunni and Shiite. Now we will see a Shiite Iraq join forces with Iran, Russia and China to dominate the region. The collaboration of the so-called moderate Arab states with the apartheid US/Israeli axis will grease the skids and hasten the fall of their corrupt leaders. ___ The difference of opinion that I have with the esteemed Dr. Kissinger is that he equates the above scenario with a takeover in Iraq by Shiite radicals. I think that this will be the natural outcome of governance by a responsible Shiite majority population with the best interest of Iraq and the region in mind.

This is a quote from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak speaking alongside Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad on stage Tuesday before a gathering of Israeli intellectuals and policymakers at a packed conference in the heart of Israel, in a town named after the founder of modern Zionism at the Herzliya Conference. ___ "This is a case of two completely, diametrically opposed historical narratives," Fayyad said in a 30-minute address that delved into the logic behind key Palestinian demands such as an end to Israel's occupation and settlement of the West Bank and the creation of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. "Israelis have a long history. Pain. Ambitions. Like you, we have our own history of pain and suffering, and we have our own ambition -- to live alongside you in peace and security." ___ Barak said that Israel risks becoming "an apartheid state par excellence" if it does not negotiate the terms of Palestinian statehood soon, and Fayyad said the work being done in the West Bank on governance needs to be matched by political progress. "We have taken the responsibility of getting ready for statehood," Fayyad said. "We need to see that the occupation is indeed on its way to being rolled back." ___ An interesting concept Khairi, this “two-state solution” with Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace and harmony…but of course we all know that it is an illusion, a mirage. The single-state is the only viable solution…don’t you agree…lol?

I don't understand why, Human Rights Watch doesn't listen to what Jordan had to say several months ago, when this is issue came to the forefront then. First of all Rick, the Jordanian Ministry of Interior had affirmed the concerned individuals/families were not Jordanian citizens in the first place, and Jordan was undertaking procedures in line with the leagl and administrative severence of ties with the west bank. I would imagine Rick, it is absurd to claim that a couple of thousands will make a difference to the demographic balance of Jordan; if as claimed half of the 6.2 million Jordanians are of Palestinian origin. As for President Obama, I still believe Rick, that either the US President is paving the way; as your good self stated, to prepare American public opinion to the possibility that, it is going to be impossibel to attack Iran, or, alternatively he is gradually preparing the Americans for a showdown with tehran very soon. I feel it is still in the balance. As for the Italian Prime Minister, well, with all due respect to his personna and status, he does frequently exhibit some idiosyncratic tendencies.

That’s what Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said of Italy’s Prime Minister Berlusconi’s visit to Israel this week. Berlusconi says he wants to bring Israel into the EU, though Israel has expressed no desire to join. ___ The European Commission had no comment about Israel's possible inclusion into union. The EU has had a tricky relationship with prospective members around the Mediterranean in the past. It turned down Morocco as a candidate in 1987, saying it was not European, and has stalled negotiations with Turkey for 23 years. Some EU nations, such as France, firmly oppose Turkey's membership on the grounds that it is also "not European." ___ "I can think of very few nations who have made such a contribution to Western culture as our two nations. In Rome and Jerusalem, the foundations for Western culture were laid," said Netanyahu. ___ True enough Khairi, but Mr. Berlusconi may be in deep doodoo if he proceeds with his plan to champion tight sanctions against Iran, against the wishes of his country’s business interests which are Iran’s largest trading partner within the EU.

While the US is driving China into the opposition camp (actually it was already there I suppose), and Russia promises to keep supplying Iran with modern weapons, the US is building up the ABM capabilities of GCC states Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Oman; and stationing ABM-capable AEGIS-equipped warships in the Persian Gulf. ___ At the end of October the US carried out its largest ever military exercises with Israel known as Juniper Cobra. The Obama administration launched a major public relations campaign this weekend to call attention to these “defensive” moves, while neglecting to mention the offensive options they afford. ___ The Israelis have said they regard February as the decisive month for sanctions, which they have indicated is based on an agreement with the United States. While previous deadlines of various sorts regarding Iran have come and gone, there is really no room after February. If no progress is made on sanctions and no action follows, then the decision has been made by default that a nuclear-armed Iran is acceptable. ___ My fearless prediction Khairi, for what it is worth, is precisely that. February is now here and soon will be gone, with the conclusion being that a nuclear-armed Iran cannot be avoided, and therefore is by default entirely acceptable.

A US based human rights group is criticizing Jordan for revoking the citizenship of about 2700 Jordanians of Palestinian origin. With about half of the kingdom’s 6 million people being of Palestinian origin, the King is worried about the possibility of a Palestinian majority taking control. ___ Of course this suits Israel just fine Khairi, since it would love to see Jordan become the Palestinian State leaving everything west of the Jordan River to the Israelis.

It is rather incomprehensible Rick, that the US is acting in such a manner by irritating to say the least, Chinese sensibility, while at the same time would cry foul play when China does not react favorably, towards US plans for sanctions aginst Iran. I would say the French are seeing plenty of complications regarding Chinese cooperation for the proposed further sanctions.

Calling in U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman on Saturday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei said the United States would be responsible for "serious repercussions" if it did not reverse the decision to sell Taiwan $6.4 billion worth of helicopters, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles, minesweepers and communications gear. ___ What happens next will be crucial Khairi. China quietly sanctioned several U.S. companies for participating in such weapons sales in the past. However, it would mark a major change if China makes the list public and includes, for example, Boeing, which sells billions of dollars worth of airplanes to China each year. ___ The vice foreign minister warned that the sales would also affect China's cooperation with the United States on regional issues. Does that mean China will continue to block Western efforts to tighten sanctions on Iran? Bonnie S. Glaser, a China security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the answer will probably come soon. France takes over the presidency of the U.N. Security Council on Monday and is expected to push for a rapid move in that direction.

I think Rick, inter-Arab relations and the interaction of the Arab world with the western world, are for more complex than your good self portrays; though one is sure that your good self is aware of this. Moreover, the relationship betwen ruled and rulers, in the Arab world, is not governed by such a linear process as your good self seems to think.

Anatoly Isaikin, the head of the state arms trader Rosoboronexport, said no international agreements bar Russia from selling weapons to Tehran. The statement marked another step in a delicate diplomatic game Moscow has been playing in a hope of maintaining good ties with Tehran without angering the West. ___ Russia signed a 2007 contract to sell the powerful S-300 air defense missiles to Tehran. Israel and the United States strongly objected to Iran obtaining the long-range missiles, which would significantly boost the country's air defense capability. ___ "There are no formal bans which would bar the delivery of any types of weapons to Iran," Isaikin said at a news conference, adding that Russia's arms trade with Iran isn't covered under current U.N. sanctions. ___ Russia has also provided Iran with some weapons and spare parts for Soviet-built military hardware, although none of them were as powerful as the S-300. ___ Russia has walked a fine line on Iran for years. It is one of the six powers leading efforts to ensure Iran does not develop an atomic bomb. But it also has tried to maintain friendly ties with Iran, a regional power close to Russia's vulnerable southern flank. Moscow has particularly appreciated Tehran's refusal to support Islamic insurgents in Chechnya and other Russian provinces in the volatile North Caucasus region. ___ This is the shape of the future Khairi, according to my crystal ball. Russia, China and Iran are inextricably bound together at the hip by their mutual interests with respect to energy supplies and national security issues. The US/Israel are also inextricably bound at the hip for a host of religious/political interests and prejudices of the US Congress and populace. This will soon drive the countries of the Middle Eastern so-called Arab moderates to accept to accept Iran’s invitation to Mubarak and climb aboard Russia-China-Iran-SCO train, if the corrupt leaders of these countries value their seats of power and their heads.

Thank you Rick, but I think it is just a different way of looking at things. Your good self maybe is endowed with the good fortune, of coming from a culture that permits somewhat long-term planning, while yours sincerely, comes from a culture; to quote late Harold Wilson, where one week is a long time in politics.

I respect your opinion on this subject more than my own Khairi…but will give you mine anyway since it is just between us girls. I think that the Mid East leaders are not looking for a way out, that betrays the Palestinian cause under cover of modest, cosmetic concessions by US/Israel. I think they have come to realize that US power and influence in the region is a thing of the past; and that Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia, China are the power brokers of the future. They are eager and willing to join forces with this new axis of power and will soon accept the offer extended by Iran to Mubarak in Egypt. ___ Since the power shift will be so gradual over the next few decades, and will be accompanied by the gradual depletion of worldwide energy (oil and natural gas) reserves, there will be no event with the required sudden impact to ignite a major war. It will just appear to be the inevitable slow and natural decline of the US/Israeli axis of power, much as occurred with the Roman Empire not so very long ago.

far from it Rick. Your good self is no fool, and the leaders in the region are no angels. I just feel very sorry for Sen.Mitchell having had such an illustrious career, to end up now carrying over the strategy of an administration which by its own admission, seems to have overestimated its capabilities in the region. I must share another thought with your good self; since both of us are the only participants-readers on this blog, that I get increasingly the feeling, the betting of the regional leaders is that the alternative to the current status quo, is more of the same but with added recriminations between the Arab and Israeli side, until there is a time that, either the Israelis will yield with cosmetic concessions which can be presented as a major victory for the Palestinians in the world media, or the Palestinians will make more concessions which can be presneted as necessary sacrifices for peace. I tell you what, I hope in a way they are right in their bets, but if they are wrong, I think the Middle East will seriously stand at the threshold of major war.

…after being publicly humiliated by Netanyahu at a tree planting ceremony in the West Bank settlement of Gush Etzion just south of Jerusalem. “Our message is clear: We are planting here, we will stay here, we will build here, this place will be a part of the racist so-called State of Israel for eternity.” Apparently he doesn’t realize just how short a time eternity is for the “State of Israel” Khairi… about two to four decades at best. ___ And yes Khairi, you are quite right about the hazards of making predictions about the Middle East… but as they often say, “fools rush in where angels fear to tread”, lol.

An admirable characteristic of your good self Rick, is that you feel comfortable in making predictions aboutt the Middle East, when even the leaders in the region do not dare do so. looking forward to seeing you over here.

I did not say, or mean to imply, my great friend and future host Khairi, that the one-state solution would be achieved in two short years. It will be more like in two to four decades. That is suitably distant as to have no chance of interfering with my night out on the town at my friend Khairi’s expense. Lol

Judy and your good self Rick, are most welcome at our invitation over here in Paris. But one state solution?, I would sincerely advise your good self to take out of the formula, because otherwise, we shall not have the opportunity to host you here. Simply it is just not going to happen.

…those good folks amongst us from whom hope still springs eternal for an eventual peaceful outcome embodying the two (or three) state solution…are doomed to eternal frustration. Any solution in which the current racist, apartheid, so called Jewish “State of Israel” continues to hog the majority of the Palestinian land and resources, and maintains military power and control over the displaced Palestinian population is neither desirable nor remotely achievable. The only possible and most surely eventual outcome is the single state solution under the majority Palestinian rule. ___ We need to set a timeline after which Judy and I will come to visit your good self and yours, for a wild night out on the town of Gay Paree at your good self’s expense lol. We are looking forward to it. What shall it be…2 years from today? Say January 22, 2012?

Your good self is absolutely correct Rick. There is nothing new in this, and Israel had always claimed the border of the west bank with Jordan, to be its own responsibility. For this reason one always found it ludicrous that the borders of the Palesitnian state can actually be fixed before anything else. In any case Jordan must have a say also, on which side will be guarding its border with the west bank. After all the west bank is an occupied territory.

Your good self is absolutely correct Rick. There is nothing new in this, as Israel has always claimed the border of the west bank with Jordan to be under its responsibility. From this prespective alone, it is ludicrous to think that the borders of the Palestinian state can be fixed before an anything else. Also Jordan must have a say on who is guarding the other side of the border. I mean technically the west bank is an Israeli occupied territory.

JERUSALEM -- Washington's Middle East envoy faced a new obstacle Thursday as he launched his latest attempt to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks: Israel wants to keep troops on the West Bank's border with Jordan even if a deal is reached. ___ Palestinians rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's demand, made just before U.S. envoy George Mitchell arrived in Israel on Wednesday. Netanyahu said Israel must maintain a presence "on the eastern side of a prospective Palestinian state" to keep militants from using the territory to launch rockets at Israel's heartland. The eastern side of such a state would be the part of the Jordan Valley that lies in the West Bank. Saeb Erekat, a confidant of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, called the demand "absolutely unacceptable." ___ "The borders of the state of Palestine will be Jordan," Erekat told Israel Radio. "The Jordan Valley is ours, is Palestine. Why do they insist on being on our territory?" ___ Israel says negotiations should begin immediately with no conditions, but the Palestinians accuse Israel of heaping plenty of conditions of its own, including the demilitarization of a future Palestinian state, the retention of east Jerusalem and now, a military presence along Jordan's border. To stake out these positions "and then tell us, come negotiate: Negotiate on what, Mr. Netanyahu? You left nothing to negotiate," Erekat fumed. ___ Mitchell is to meet with Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials on Thursday, and with Palestinian officials in the West Bank on Friday. ___ So what’s new about this Khairi. As we have discussed below, Israel will always insist on maintaining a military presence and strict control of all border crossings into Palestine as a security measure.

One is not expecting Rick, for either the international community or Their Eminence the Bishops to be more Arab than the Arabs, or more Palestinian than the Palestinians, but if they can do more than all the Arab sides for the palestinian people, then I would say gratefully; they are most welcome to the whole problem and its solution. Since when did Mr. Mish'aal listen to anyone, or complied with anyone's demands, so that he can issue his demands on Egypt not to exercise its own sovereignity over its own territories?.

JERUSALEM -- A high-level delegation of Roman Catholic bishops criticized Israeli polices in Arab sectors of Jerusalem on Thursday. The group of eight bishops from North America and Europe said violence, insecurity, the route of Israel's West Bank separation barrier, home demolitions and other policies threaten peace prospects and endanger the dwindling Christian presence in the Holy Land. The issue of Jerusalem - home to holy sites for Jews, Christians and Muslims - remains the most flammable in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. ___ "For us, this is not merely about politics; it is an issue of basic human rights," the statement said. During their visit, the bishops visited Christian institutions in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, talked with Palestinians about their lives and listened to presentations from Israeli and Palestinian experts. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the bishops spoke of watching Palestinian children cross Israeli checkpoints to return from school and the humiliation Palestinians say they feel at such places. Israel says the crossings are necessary to prevent attacks. ___ The whole world condemns the atrocities being perpetrated against the Palestinian people. The so called moderate Arab states should not be maintaining normal relations with the US/Israeli axis.

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal called on Egypt on Friday to stop building an underground wall along its border with Gaza, which the Islamist group says would put further strain on the isolated enclave. Hamas calls the project a "wall of death" that could seal an Israeli-led blockade by smothering smuggler tunnels from the Egyptian Sinai peninsula. "We call on the Egyptian leadership to stop building the steel wall along its border with the Gaza Strip," Meshaal said at a conference bringing resistance groups together in Beirut. "A wall (is erected) between enemies and not between brothers," he said. ___ Amen to that… President Mubarak, and the good King Abdullah IInd, are playing with fire in siding with the US/Israeli axis of war criminals, and against their own people. ___ The blockade has drawn international condemnation over hardships caused to Palestinians in the poor coastal enclave and its impact on efforts to rebuild homes and infrastructure following Israel's three-week Gaza offensive a year ago.

I would say that the single-state solution is inevitable Khairi, and inexorable demographic trends will insure that it will not be a Jewish majority state. It is only a matter of time, and non too much of that.

One would say Rick, let us deal with the realm of the possible first, then perhaps after that, we can attempt dealing with the impossible.

Ah, there is the rub Khairi. The Israelis may “have the right to live in their state and within safe borders…” but, they do not have the right to put that state on Palestinian land, displacing previous land and home owners. If the US and EU want the Israelis to have their own state, they should allocate land in Texas or France for it.

I think Rickthe whole issue should be put in its proper perspective. The Palestinians have the inalianable right to have their state on their own land, in as much as the Israelis have the right to live in their state and within secure borders. The whole Islamic nation will defend Muslim their right to their holy shrines, in as much as Jews and Christinas have the same rights to their holy shrines. As far as one can see, the first word of wisdom that president Obama should be reminded with, is that all those dimensions should not be mutually exclusive. Moreover, all attempted solutions have been tried regarding stemming the tide of Islamist extremism; except the most obvious, and that is solving the Palestinian problem.

David Ignatius tries to give President Obama some words of wisdom in his column today in the WP. Go back to the principles espoused in the Cairo speech. ___ “U.S. efforts to counter al-Qaeda in Yemen are hindered by the strong anti-American sentiment there. It's the same problem as in Pakistan. You can't turn this anger around just by drinking tea or showering development money. The United States must address issues that people care passionately about, such as the Palestinian problem. ___ The administration is struggling to revive the stillborn Palestinian peace process. George Mitchell, the president's special envoy to the Middle East, is said to be drafting terms of reference for negotiations and letters of assurance for the parties that will offer more clarity about U.S. positions on key issues. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested the outlines last week when she called for "an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines with agreed swaps" of territory. ___ Even as he fights al-Qaeda and its allies, Obama needs to be Obama. He needs to continue voicing the Cairo message of outreach to the Muslim world -- not as an alternative to battling extremism but as a necessary component of that fight. We are confronting an enemy that wants to draw us deeper into battle, so that America is more isolated and unpopular. We avoid that spider's trap by solving problems that matter.” ___ Unfortunately, Khairi, this is Mission Impossible. We want to steal the Palestinian homeland for the Jews, make the Palestinians second class citizens on the remnant of land that we wish to allot for them, and expect them to take it. No way.

Though I can't say that the US is suffering isolation, but one would certainly agree with your good self Rick, that Israeli foreign policy is managing to make enemies gradually as it goes along from all sides of the globe.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel apologized to Turkey on Wednesday for what it called a breach of diplomatic manners. After Ankara demanded an apology for his televised dressing down of Turkey's ambassador Monday, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon issued a statement conceding that his behavior toward the envoy had been inappropriate: "It is not my way to disrespect ambassadors' honor and in the future I will clarify my position in a diplomatically acceptable manner." While Ayalon stopped short of using the word, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as an "apology" and said he was glad that it had been made. ___ An interesting incident Khairi that, while a mere tempest in a teapot, highlights the accelerating isolation of the US/Israeli axis and the worldwide condemnation of the criminal behavior of this axis of terrorist states.

Turkey is a very important country in the Middle East Rick; as your good self knows. One being an advocate of an expanded role for Turkey in the Middle East, I have to say that I am glad to see Turkey being pro-active in the Middle East, although somehow, I believe this role is a mere gambit on the path of strengthening its relations in the region, so that eventually, the EU may pay better attention to Turkey's capabilities. Nevertheless, as far as one is concerned, Turkey is most welcome to assume a leadership role in the area.

The Orange Revolution will be reversed by the January 17 elections in Ukraine Khairi. So says my crystal ball. This is in keeping with the rising star of the Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, SCO block, and the corresponding decline of the west.

…lashes out at Israel at a joint news conference with Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri. His demands are that Israel: (1) stop threatening peace in the region, (2) stop using disproportionate force against Palestinians, (3) stop violating Lebanon’s airspace and territorial waters, and that (4) the UN Security Council put the same pressure on Israel to abandon its nuclear weapons as it does on Iran. ___ "We can never remain silent in the face of Israel's attitude. ... It has disproportionate power and it is using that at will while refusing to abide by U.N. resolutions. We can never accept this picture," Erdogan said. "These steps threaten global peace." ____ Erdogan accused Israel of using white phosphorus shells in its offensive in Gaza last year. "No one can claim that phosphorus shells are not weapons of mass destruction," he said. ___ Meanwhile on Monday, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, summoned the Turkish ambassador for clarification over a new Turkish TV show where actors pretending to be Israeli intelligence agents kidnap children and shoot old men. A diplomatic spat occurred a few months ago between Israel and Turkey after a different Turkish show depicted Israeli troops killing Palestinian children. ___ I like this guy Erdogan, Khairi. It looks like Turkey and Lebanon are jumping aboard the Iran/Iraq/Syria/Russia/China/SCO train, having had enough of US/Israeli axis hegemony. I expect we will soon hear that the so-called moderates, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and all GCC states will soon be clambering aboard as well in response to Iran’s recent overture to Mubarak et al.

Since 1948 the saga goes on in the Middle East. And indeed Rick it is a storm in a tea cup, but so long as it reamins in the tea cup.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10796 ___ For 700 hundred days of negotiations in Northern Ireland one side said it would never agree the this…and for 700 days the other side said it would never agree to that…then on the 701st day both sides agreed to what they each had said they would never agree to…

U.S. suggestion of sanctions causes stir in Israel ___ JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A U.S. peace envoy's suggestion that Washington could penalize Israel financially to force it to make concessions to the Palestinians drew Israeli ire on Sunday. ___ "Under American law, the United States can withhold support on loan guarantees to Israel," George Mitchell said on U.S. television on Wednesday after being asked about the kind of pressure that could be brought to bear on Israel. ___ Over the past two decades, Israel has received U.S. guarantees covering billions of dollars in loans, underwriting that has enabled it to raise money overseas more cheaply. ___ Israeli media seized on Mitchell's remarks as reminders of a low point in U.S.-Israeli relations -- President George Bush's withholding of $10 billion in guarantees in 1991 after Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir refused to freeze settlement expansion. ___ "Mitchell's threat," said the main headline of Israel's mass circulation Maariv newspaper, which described the envoy's comments as a "bombshell." ___ Speaking to reporters in Jerusalem, visiting U.S. Senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain rejected Mitchell's remarks. "Any attempt to pressure Israel, to force Israel, to the negotiating table by denying Israel support will not pass the Congress of the United States," said Lieberman, an independent. ___ Republican Senator McCain, who lost the 2008 presidential election to Obama, added: "We disagree, obviously, with that comment and I am sure that you will see the administration in the future say that is certainly not the administration's policy." ___ Obama and Netanyahu have clashed over the president's demand -- since softened -- that Israel halt all settlement activity on land captured in the 1967 war, in line with a 2003 U.S.-backed peace 'road map' that also called on the Palestinians to rein in militants. ___ Nabil Abu Rdaineh, a spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, rejected the accusation that the Palestinians were to blame for a lack of progress toward a statehood deal. "Israel continues settlement building in violation of the road map," Abu Rdaineh said. ___ Under pressure from Obama, Netanyahu imposed a limited, 10-month moratorium on November 25 on housing starts in West Bank settlements, saying he hoped this would help restart negotiations suspended for the past year. ___ But he excluded East Jerusalem and nearby annexed areas of the West Bank, and Abbas has not budged from his demand for a complete settlement freeze before talks can resume. Asked about Mitchell's remarks, Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz called U.S. loan guarantees a "token of friendship" but said Israel had no plans to use those available for 2010 and 2011. ___ In 2002, the United States provided a package of $9 billion in loan guarantees. The package included a formula that deducts a dollar of guarantees for every dollar Israel spent on settlement building. ___ As of December 15, Israel still had $3.148 billion of the guarantees available after issuing $4.1 billion in bonds backed by the United States and a $1.1 billion deduction for settlement building and concerns over the barrier Israel is building in the West Bank. ___ It is quite the tempest in the tea pot don’t you think Khairi?

Abu Mazen is still saying that, he still wants a total freeze on settelements activities, and the way Sec. Clinton is telling her Arab visitors for the need of unconditional return to the table of negotiations, and her discourse about the Jewish state, I can only say that it will be a pleasure to host your good self and lady wife for dinner over here.

My wife and I will be pleased to join you for dinner in gay Pari. My wife will be most happy to hear this news. We will try to take it easy on your pocket book. lol

I suppose we are back to our wager Rick. Mr. Abbas doesn't seem to think that the US letters of guarantees are enough, because he believes that the US had offered guarantees before. Still, Sec. Clinton is talking about the return to negotiations without pre-conditions, and with rising pressure now even from the Arab world, I think President Abbas; your good self is correct, will be sitting at the table again. If I win the wager, well, dinner on you once you come to Paris, because unfortunately, I am not likely to come to your neighbourhood in the near future.

Another fascinating column from Ambassador Bhadrakumar at AsiaTimes.com. Read about the US/Israel/India axis as it targets China by occupying Yemen.

And it seems they will go after the more contentious issue of borders first, which has been traditionally put off till the end game, and considered as being too difficult to resolve until final status discussions. ___ I wonder if Abbas will cave in on his insistence for a complete halt to settlement construction. I think he will. ___ But in my usual role as Pessimist in Chief I must say that it will all be for naught. What is being considered is nowhere near equal status for the Palestinian and Israeli States. Israel will still impose strict control of border traffic as a security measure, continue the unequal distribution of water, and their will be no Palestinian armed forces. ___ The only viable solution remains the single state solution.

It seems according to Ynetnews, Mr. Mirchell has threatened Israel with sanctions, id it does not advance the peace process, and Sec. Clinton is promising a speedy return to the peace negotiations between the Palesitnians and the Israelis without pre-conditions. I guess something is moving at last.

The discussion that your good self and I have had recently has surfaced in today’s newspapers Khairi. Reuters reports that Israel accused Western-backed Palestinian leaders on Thursday of committing "incitement" by endorsing the honoring of militants involved in deadly attacks. An official in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said complaints had been lodged with the White House and State Department against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayad for the alleged incidents. ___ Publication of the complaint came within days of an expected visit by President Barack Obama's Middle East envoy George Mitchell for a fresh round of shuttle diplomacy aimed at resuming Israeli-Palestinian negotiations stalled since 2008. Israeli reports charged Abbas had endorsed honors to a militant behind a 1978 bus hijacking in which more than 30 people were killed, and Fayad hailed three other militants killed by Israeli forces after being accused of murdering a Jewish settler. An Israeli official, referring to these reports, told Reuters that "over last few days the Israeli government has raised very serious concerns with the United States about activities of incitement in the Palestinian Authority." ___ Ron Dermer, a senior policy adviser to Netanyahu, added in a statement that "these terrorists are murderers not martyrs. We expect the Palestinian Authority to prepare the Palestinian people to live in peace with Israel, not to glorify killers." ___ Israel has accused Palestinians of flouting obligations under a peace "road map" to crack down on violence by militants, but this time seemed also to be countering Abbas's latest insistence on a total freeze in Jewish settlements in the West Bank before peace talks may resume. ___ Israel has frozen most settlements for 10 months, although it is still building new homes in parts of East Jerusalem captured from Jordan in the 1967 war. ___ Spokesmen for Abbas, who was traveling in the Arab world, could not immediately be reached, while officials in Fayad's office declined to comment on the Israeli charge. ___ Abbas signaled on Monday he was considering a proposal to relaunch talks at a U.S.-backed summit with Israeli and Egyptian leaders, which Netanyahu proposed on a visit to Cairo last week. ___ Mitchell told U.S. television on Wednesday he planned to return to the region in the next few days and thought "the negotiation should last no more than two years, once begun."

“The inauguration of the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran pipeline on Wednesday connecting Iran's northern Caspian region with Turkmenistan's vast gas field may go unnoticed amid the Western media cacophony that it is "apocalypse now" for the Islamic regime in Tehran. ___ The event sends strong messages for regional security. Within the space of three weeks, Turkmenistan has committed its entire gas exports to China, Russia and Iran. It has no urgent need of the pipelines that the United States and the European Union have been advancing. Are we hearing the faint notes of a Russia-China-Iran symphony?” ___ From an article in today’s AsiaTimes.com by Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.___ It’s time for the Arab League to tune up their instruments and join the symphony Khairi.

Always apply Rick. Unfotunately, the forces of civilization will have to be always lucky to stop the terrorists, while the terrorists themselves, need only to be lucky once. Indeed there is an a-symmetray here. At a time when the impliments of counter-terrorism are becoming expensive, the impliments of terror themselves are becoming cheaper. Also, it is not only; if at first you don't succeed try again, but also, try many times again, because failure means the end of the Middle East.

…then try and try again. The Obama administration is gearing up for a fresh attempt to relaunch stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks after the effort hit a dead end last year. ___ In a flurry of meetings in Washington and in European capitals this week and next, senior administration officials will explore new approaches to bringing the two sides together. ___ Clinton and Mitchell are scheduled to meet at the State Department on Friday with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. ___ "Judeh will stress the importance of relaunching negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis under a clear and time-bound plan that addresses final status issues between the two parties, achieves a just and lasting peace and establishes an independent Palestinian state," the Jordanian Embassy in Washington said Wednesday. ___ Following those talks, Mitchell will travel Sunday to Paris and Brussels for meetings with his counterparts from the so-called Quartet of Mideast peacemakers - the U.S., the European Union, the United Nations and Russia - and European diplomats before a trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories later in the month, U.S. officials said. ___ When he travels to the region, Mitchell is expected to be carrying letters of "guarantees" outlining the U.S. position. ___ The letters are likely to contain gestures to both sides. For the Palestinians, that would include criticism of settlements and the belief that the borders that existed before the 1967 Arab-Israeli War be the basis of a future peace deal. For the Israelis, they would acknowledge that post-1967 demographic changes on the ground must be taken into account, meaning that Israel would be able to keep some settlements.

It may not be nice and pretty Khairi, but it is all we leave them to fight back with. And it continues to be proven to be very effective in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. As long as we allow our governments to support the Israeli occupation of Palestine, and blockade of Gaza, we deserve and can expect continuing asymmetric counter attacks.

Well my friend Rick, there are 1.3 billion Muslims in the world, and you expect them to put up with a small minority of murderous obscurantists, whom have taken it upon themselves to decide who is their target and who is not, to kill and mame at their own leisure and their own time?.

Michael T. Claire writing in the AsiaTimes.com sees things much like I do. The world of 2009 may look much like that of 1999, with the USA being the dominant power and the US dollar the dominant currency. But the world of 2020 will be much different. ___ “What, then, will be the dominant characteristics of the second decade of the 21st century? Prediction of this sort is, of course, inherently risky, but extrapolating from current trends, four key aspects of second-decade life can be discerned: the rise of China; the (relative) decline of the US; the expanding role of the global South; and finally, possibly most dramatically, the increasing impact of a roiling environment and growing resource scarcity. ___ A more assertive China that showed what the Washington Post called "swagger" was already evident in the final months of 2009 at the summit meetings between presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao in Beijing and Copenhagen. In neither case did the Chinese side seek a "harmonious" outcome: in Beijing, it restricted Obama's access to the media and refused to give any ground on Tibet or tougher sanctions on key energy-trading partner Iran. At a crucial moment in Copenhagen, it actually sent low-ranking officials to negotiate with Obama - an unmistakable slight - and forced a compromise that absolved China of binding restraints on carbon emissions.___ China sees a world wide-open to imports of Chinese goods and to investments that allow Chinese firms to devour global resources, while placing ever less reliance on the US dollar as the medium of international exchange.” ___ The USA will still be a very rich nation in 2020, with projected GDP of $17.5 trillion (in 2005 dollars). But its relative position will have changed from having GDP exceeding all nations in Asia and South America combined, including China, Brazil, India and Japan. By 2020 this combined Asia and South America GDP will be 40% greater than that of the USA and growing much faster. The USA will no longer dominate the world economy. ___ All of this might represent nothing more than the normal changing of the imperial guard on planet Earth, if that planet itself weren't undergoing far more profound changes than any individual power or set of powers, no matter how strong. The ever more intrusive realities of global warming, resource scarcity, and food insufficiency will, by the end of this century's second decade, be undeniable and, if not by 2020, then in the decades to come, have the capacity to put normal military and economic power, no matter how impressive, in the shade.” ___ Michael T Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (Owl Books).

The Ashura protests failed to develop into the challenge against the regime that was hoped for by many in the opposition and within some think tanks and institutes supporting the protestors. The regime has since clamped down effectively on the opposition and without extraordinary use of force. Demonstrations may continue, but they do not appear capable of reaching sufficient critical mass to overwhelm Iran’s security apparatus, which appears in control of the situation and so far loyal to the regime. ___ By publishing an extensive list of foreign organizations allegedly tied to the Iranian opposition, the regime is laying the legal groundwork to conduct mass arrests. The move essentially denies the opposition what little organized leadership it has and removes potential leaders. At the same time, the regime is being careful to avoid arresting prominent opposition politicians like Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami, preferring instead to publicly emasculate them and demoralize the opposition. ___ From the Iranian regime’s point of view, the concept of the meddling foreign hand is yet another useful tool for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies to strengthen their hold on the regime.

When he served in the Afghan mountains as Osama bin Laden's bodyguard, Nasser al-Bahri said, he was known as "The Killer." Today, he is a business consultant in Yemen who favors Western-style pinstriped shirts, crisp slacks and black loafers. But his ideas are still radical: Ask him whether jihadists should kill Americans on U.S. soil and he replies without hesitation, "America is a legitimate target." ___ As the United States steps up its engagement here, it faces the delicate task of fighting terrorism without alienating Yemen's highly tribal and religiously conservative society. Like Pakistan and Afghanistan, Yemen has abundant weapons and men experienced in guerrilla warfare who resent U.S. policies and have tribal, social and inspirational ties to al-Qaeda. Many fear that such men could become perfect recruits, especially if anti-American sentiments grow or Yemen plunges deeper into chaos. ___ Bahri was born in 1972 in Saudi Arabia to Yemeni parents. He grew up in the kingdom and earned a business degree in college. But like so many young Saudis, Bahri was deeply influenced by Sunni fundamentalist preachers and the Palestinian struggles against Israel. ____ I would say that allies of the US/Israeli axis in its terrorizing of the Palestinian people will be equally legitimate targets in the view of those like Mr. Bahri and most people with an open mind.

One is sure that, people are enraged to see on daily basis their kin and kith being dispossessed and killed by state terrorism, in as much as they are enraged, when a group of terrorists takes it upon itself to kill them and make them live under total insecurity.

I think the ambiguity arises Khairi in one’s definition of terrorism. Just like one man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist. Is the real terrorist the suicide bomber in the Israeli bus, or the US airplane… or the US/Israeli war machines that drop white phosphorus bombs by the tons from the safety of warplanes thousands of feet over the Palestinian, Iraqi, Afghan, Pakistani or Yemeni population centers. ___ The majority of the Jordanian people are also enraged over the blockade and bombing of the people of Gaza.

I doubt Rick that the issue is that of embaressment. When there is a clandestine operation anywhere in the world undertaken by one or more security agency and goes wrong, well, it is just a failure of the operation, and not necessarily an embaressment to one country or countries. Moreover, if the news items about this operation are correct, then Jordan hypothetically would be fighting terrorism, and the overwhelming majority of its people are against terrorism, in addition to the fact that all islamic countries are against terrorism. So, why should under such hypothetical circumstances, Jordan's standing be suffering?.

Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, all GCC states…will be shaken to their roots in the coming decades as energy supplies dwindle, as the US/Israeli axis weakens, and as energy exporting nations wield enormous wealth and power. Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq will exert ever more power and influence as the fleetingly temporary “State of Israel” is absorbed into the Palestinian state and the pro-western governments of the region are overthrown. This is the great and palpable fear of the authoritarian current Arab governments of the region and this is why they will accept the Iranian proposal to join Iran and the SCO in establishing the new world order.

SANAA, YEMEN -- As the United States ramps up its counterterrorism role here, senior Yemeni officials are publicly playing down the partnership, fearing that the government could pay a heavy political price for aligning with the United States and appearing too weak to control al-Qaeda on its own. ___ The head of Yemen's national security agency, Ali Muhammad al-Anisi, declared over the weekend that the threat posed by al-Qaeda had been exaggerated and that Yemen is not a haven for militants. Since Anisi's statement, al-Qaeda threats have forced the U.S., British, German, French and Japanese embassies to close. ___ While playing down the U.S. role seems designed to prevent a domestic backlash, it also raises questions about the government's long-term commitment and will to fight al-Qaeda in the wake of the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day. Yemen's fragile government is in a delicate balancing act between its allegiance to the United States and tribal, political and religious forces that resent U.S. interference in Yemen and sympathize with al-Qaeda's ideology. ___ "The government has to care for its own survival, and its survival depends on powerful tribal and social groups," said Abdullah al-Faqih, a political science professor at Sanaa University. "And some of these groups have strong connections to al-Qaeda. It's impossible for the government to wage a war in the north and an insurrection in the south and to fight against al-Qaeda at the same time. You need Superman to do this."

Bin Zeid, the Jordanian slain in the CIA attack in Afghanistan, had married about a year ago, and was described by a former Jordanian intelligence officer who knew him as a modest but highly effective officer who never traded on his royal status as a cousin to the king. His family ties nonetheless made him ideally suited for the most sensitive missions, the former officer said. "He loved his work; it was his life." He was honored with a military funeral when his body arrived in the capital. The ceremony was attended by Jordan's King Abdullah II and his wife, Rania. ___ The suicide bomber, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, was also a trusted Jordanian informant, a physician-turned-mole, who had been recruited to infiltrate al-Qaeda's senior circles and had gained the trust of his CIA and Jordanian handlers with a stream of useful intelligence. ___ The role of Jordanian intelligence at the CIA's base was tacitly acknowledged over the weekend. Jordan is a key ally in the U.S. fight against al-Qaeda, and its intelligence operatives have been integrated into missions in the Middle East and beyond. Yet, despite its critical role, officials from both countries have insisted that its participation remain virtually invisible, in part to avoid damaging Jordan's standing among other Muslim nations in the region, former intelligence officials said. ___ This is not good publicity for Jordan and King Abdullah II Khairi in the eyes of Muslims.

I would say it is only natural Rick, for friends and allies to coordinate their activities; especially in this age of global terrorism. However, what I know is that, Jordan offers medical and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.

One of the eight reported CIA agents recently killed by a suicide bomber in Afghanistan turns out to have been an agent of Jordan’s spy agency known as the GID (General Intelligence Department) Khairi. Current and former U.S. intelligence officials say the special relationship with Jordan dates back at least three decades and has recently progressed to the point that the CIA liaison officer in Amman enjoys full, unescorted access to the GID's fortress-like headquarters. Critics of the country's pro-U.S. policy say the closeness stems in part from Jordan's receipt of about $500 million worth of economic and military aid from the United States each year and from Jordan's status as one of only two Arab states to have signed a peace agreement with Israel. But Jordanian officials say the cooperation with the CIA is motivated by a mutual understanding of the danger posed by al-Qaeda and the religious extremism and violence it espouses. "If al-Qaeda targets America, it also targets our stability and the peace of this region," a Jordanian intelligence said in a recent interview. "Based on this stance, we have had many successes countering terrorism."

Are brought by the US/Israeli bombs raining down on the population centers in Lebanon and Palestine Khairi; not Hamas and Hezbollah. Are those who resist invasion and occupation the problem, or those who illegally invade and bomb and kill and occupy the land and homes of others?

the misery, death and destruction brought by Hamas and Hizbullah on the Gazans and Lebanese people respectively, it would be a pleasure for both the Gazans and Lebanese people to live in a black hole, or better still, send Hamas and Hizbullah into a black hole, rather than suffer their "benevolence".

The Hamas and Hezbollah freedom fighters are not pushing the Palestinians and Lebanese people into black holes Khairi, but rather are showing the way to freedom that all citizens of the world deserve and demand. With the help of Iran, Syria, Russia and China they will chase the colonizers from their land and restore it to the rightful owners. The appeasers and collaborators in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other GCC states had best jump aboard this train as it is leaving the station, or they will be an endangered species indeed. Al-Jazeera et al will stir up the street and overthrow these traitors as they deserve.

That's how it is Rick.In Yemen, one neither thinks that there will be US intervention, nor a proxy war carried out in the name of the USA, because both, the Saudi and Yemeni priorities are different to those of the USA. For the Yemenis, it is imporatnt to stump out the seperatist socialist movement in the South, and to defeat the Houthis militarily, which is pretty the same as what the saudis want. The Yemeni government only sent troops to al-Qaeda areas in order to please the US, although at the same time, there are many quarters close to the yemni regime, whom still view al-Qaeda as an asset to use against the Houthis and the Socialists of the South of the country. The only thing for the US to do, is for a change, take the priorities of its allies into consideration, and continue to support Yemen economically as well as militarily, so that the regime can feel confident enough, to make the US priorities his priorities as well. On Iran, I think we have talked about it recently, therefore, I can only repeat briefly what I always believed, and that is either Presidnet Obama will continue to take the diplomatic path until such a time that, it becomes impossible to attack Iran, or, he will tell the American people at one point, that all options have been tried with Iran, and there is no alternative to the military option. I still believe that it could go easily either way. What your good self has posted Rick regarding rami's article is very interesting, and I only wish to add that, unfortunately in the Arab world, all those revolutionaries whom came to save the nation and liberate palestine, came on the turrets of tanks, or raised the banner of Islam. On both scores, they managed to throw the Arab world further, into more black holes.

Rami G. Khouri writing in Lebanon’s Daily Star tries to explain why the Arab world persists in being the only collectively turbulent and non-democratic region in the world: ___ (1) first, the brittle states that define the modern Arab order, with their fundamental autocracy, occasional illegitimacies, prevalent corruption and mismanagement, and widespread mediocrity in meeting citizens’ needs; ___ (2) second, the persistent direct or indirect interference in the region of foreign powers, militarily, economically and politically; and, ___ (3) third, the impact of the Arab-Israeli conflict on publics and state policies alike. ___ The end of 2009 sees the US actively involved in four wars – in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. If this is not a wake-up call for Americans, I do not know what is. But it is a greater wake-up call for the people of the Arab world themselves, who remain fractured and in disarray due to their own domestic national incoherence and the persistent need among many to actively resist American-Israeli policies and those of some allied conservative Arab governments. ___ This year ends with Yemen and Detroit beckoning to us to try harder and act more intelligently in understanding the root causes of our wars, conflicts and profound irrationalities and excesses, reflected in our common savageries: Arabs oppressing and killing each other and trying to kill civilians in distant lands; Israelis colonizing and killing Arabs; and the American armed forces attacking and killing simultaneously in four distant lands. Unraveling the madness starts with connecting the dots, because these are not isolated, unrelated dynamics.

Second, can we curb Iran’s nuclear program? The clock was supposed to run out New Year’s Eve on President Barack Obama’s timetable for engagement. But the administration is adding a little extra time by keeping the door open for talks before a vote on new United Nations sanctions, probably in March or April. ___ Diplomacy shows little promise of stopping Tehran, but neither does anything else. So the administration has encouraged Turkish mediation efforts to find a compromise on the October 1 plan for enrichment of Iranian fuel outside the country, which Tehran appeared to accept and then rejected. The White House has also okayed Senator John Kerry’s idea of visiting Tehran, but Kerry has wisely dropped that for now, when the Iranian regime is killing protesters. Is regime change in the air in Tehran? Last weekend’s demonstrations revived that hope, but it’s premature. The regime is expanding its network of repression while the opposition – lacking a strong leader – remains unable to mount sustained, organized protests. ___ [Sorry Shiveh…but don’t worry, you’re insight is as good or better than any on this issue.]

Here are some of the puzzles I’ll [David Ignatius writing in Lebanon’s Daily Star] be trying to understand better in the year ahead: ___ [Puzzle 1] First, are we beginning a new counterterror war in Yemen? The answer seems to be yes, but the Obama administration is wisely following the model of Afghanistan 2001 by using proxy forces (in this case, the Yemeni government) to attack Al-Qaeda. That’s a lot better idea than sending in US combat troops. ___ The partnership with Yemen is delicate, which is why US officials have said so little about it. But there’s a growing American program to aid Yemeni counterterrorism forces, and it appears that US precision-guided weapons were used in a December 17 attack on three Al-Qaeda hideouts, killing 34 operatives. This is precisely what America should have done against Osama bin Laden in the 1990s, before 9/11, and it’s the right policy now. ___ Yemen is the scene of a second proxy war, this one by Saudi and Yemeni forces against the Houthi rebels along the northern border, who have Iranian support. Again, the sensible US course is to help others do the fighting.

As we know my good friend Rick, variety is the spice of life. In any case, I would say the SCO is far removed from Arab problems, and the gap between the Iranian regime and the Arab states is far to wide to bridge for the time being.

Egypt's minister of legal affairs and parliamentary councils, Mofid Shehab, criticized Al-Jazeera Saturday for instigating "a civil war" with its reports on a steel barrier being built on the border with Gaza. ___ He said television networks were working against the Egyptian government "in order to engender a civil war and inflame the Egyptian and Arab streets, and cause a clash of official authorities". ___ "A number of Arab satellite stations, and this one especially, poisoned the public against the state" ___ Good…keep up the good work Al-Jazeera. If the corrupt Arab leadership sells out to the US/Israeli axis, then throw the bums out.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- The Saudi foreign minister on Saturday criticized Israel's settlement construction and said the international community is not tough enough in pressuring it to make concessions. ___ Prince Saud al-Faisal said Washington and other players in Mideast peace efforts should take a "firm and serious" stand to put an end to Israeli construction on land Palestinians want for a future state. ___ "The reason why a solution cannot be reached is the preferential treatment that Israel gets," he said. "When other countries violate international law, they get punished, except for Israel. If war crimes are committed, other countries get punished, except Israel. ___ "Israel has become in the international community like a spoiled child," he said. "It does what it wants without being questioned or punished." ___ Saud spoke after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, whose country has long been Israel's closest ally in the Muslim world, though relations were strained over last winter's war in Gaza. Davutoglu said Israel should end the "catastrophe and calamity" in the Gaza Strip and should freeze settlement building. ___ Saud said Israel will be the first country to be threatened from the instability that will result if there is no Mideast peace. ___ [So stop your whining and join forces with Iran and the SCO to do something about it.]

Iran warns West it will make its own nuclear fuel ___ TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran set a one-month deadline Saturday for the West to accept its counterproposal to a U.N.-drafted nuclear plan and warned that otherwise it will produce reactor fuel at a higher level of enrichment on its own. ___ The warning was a show of defiance and a hardening of Iran's stance over its nuclear program…"We have given them an ultimatum. There is one month left and that is by the end of January," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, speaking on state television. ___ Take it or leave it folks, this train is moving out. ___ As for the best hope for the Palestinian people Khairi, we see it differently but that is OK. Good friends are not required to agree on every issue. I happen to think that the best hope is the new collaboration in the works at Iran’s initiative between Iran and the Arab states. This new alliance will dictate terms to the morally and physically bankrupt US/Israeli axis on everything from the price of a barrel of oil to the boundaries of the new Palestinian state.

Of course Rick, there is no comparison between the numbers killed in both crimes, but the spirit of it is just the same as your good self understands. Also I am sure that your good self knows, both crimes perpetrated, were done by obscurantist extremist groups far detached from the Palestinian problem. As for HM King Abdullah IInd. he is the best hope for the palestinian people, therefore, his life is very important for the future fate of millions in the Middle East. California?. Why be scared if it comes with the weather.

David Ignatius says that what worries him most about the coming year is the "Californiazation" of America -- the growing tendency of our political system to make promises in social spending programs that it isn't prepared to pay for with tax increases. ___ What do you think of that Shiveh? ___ Sounds like Europe eh Khairi, although Europe may pay for its programs with higher taxes…like $4 per gallon gasoline. Is that right Khairi? That’s what America needs…$4 per gallon gas…seriously, it would force us to conserve, make alternative energy sources more viable, and help pay some bills created by the last 28 years of Voodoo Reaganomics. ___ Thanks for the history/geography lesson Shiveh…it helps us to understand the complex Iran/Afghan relationship. No Iran will not rename the street anymore than they will join NATO. Mubarak will drop that demand very quickly and jump aboard the SCO/Russia/China/Central Asia/soon-to-be-Arab League train.

Rick, a street by any other name means mullahs must reject Hamas in favor of Egypt, lose Hezbollah, kowtow to Saudis and give away much of their rights in the Persian Gulf. They might as well join NATO if they go that route! // Iran is a merchant that is giving away its merchandise. For as long as mullahs are not asking for a payment they’ll have many friends in Afghanistan and elsewhere including the Arab world. But no one knows what will happen if they ask for payment. Northern Afghans (Tajiks, Uzbeks) share a long history with Iranians. They consider themselves part of greater Khorasan province which was part of Persia and also 19th century Iran and includes Herat (Afghanistan), Mashhad (Iran), Bukhara (Uzbekistan), Doshanbeh (Tajikistan). There are historic and cultural bonds that make it easer for deals to shape. But there is also a history of conflicts and skirmishes that limit the trust and keeps the parties at arms length. Afghans will try to keep Iran happy and the economic assistance flowing for as long as it is to their benefit. They might not serve Iranian politics if the price to pay is too high.

These are things that understandably make the blood boil Khairi; i.e. the assassination of President Sadat and the 9/11 attack. I don’t know if it is correct to compare the assassination of one man to the killing of 6000 citizens of New York city. But I get your point. It is ironic, that these two events are so closely related, though most will not see why. ___ Sadat was killed for betraying the entire Muslim world, Arab and Persian alike by accepting the displacement of, and continued atrocities perpetrated against, the Palestinian people to form the “State of Israel”, then signing a peace treaty with this self same illegal state. King Abdullah II of Jordan is guilty of the same crime but so far has escaped the consequences. The impetus for 9/11 was similar in that it was in retaliation (in part) for the US role in the establishment and continued support for this self same illegal state, and associated atrocities against the Palestinian people, and the continued hegemony over the Middle East of this US/Israeli axis.

Given the posturing and apparent intentions of the Iranian regime, I don't think in any case Rick, that it will stop meddling in inter-Arab affairs' irrespective of what President Mubarak said or, for the reasons of saying it. But that will not contribute to the easing of tension and to the reduction of suspicion on the part of many countries in the Arab world. Your good self may think that changing the name of the street in Tehran where the Egyptian Embassy was located is a trivial matter, but for Egypt, it is similar to calling a street in one country or another, where the American Embassy is located, by one of the perpetrators of the 9/11 disaster.

That was what Mubarak said as well Khairi. His two conditions are: (1) rename a street in Tehran (a rather trifling demand in my opinion), and (2) stop meddling. What he means is that he wants to be free to continue taking his $3 billion per annum US/Israeli bribe to continue his betrayal of his Palestinian brothers. In that case, I would say to Iran, keep on meddling; i.e. supporting Hamas and Hezbollah freedom fighters.

This is not at all what I meant Shiveh, rather, that the Arab states of the near east, see Iran spreading its influence all the way to the Mediterranean through meddling in inter-Arab affairs. They see Iran meddling in Iraq, in Palestinian affairs, in Yemen, and assuming an unpredicatble position regarding its nuclear programme. In this context, no small or big gestures from Iran would put the mind of those Arab states at ease, nor alleviate their fears so long as they see Iran meddling in inter-Arab affairs. In other words, they want to see a change in Iran's attitude towards the Arab world.

I don’t get it Khairi…what is so different about Persian Iran and the Arab states, other than their particular brands of Sunni vs. Shia Islam. Iran is more democratic I believe, even though the Mullahs have the final word in Iran; and there is certainly no more freedom of religion and civil rights available in the Arab states than Iran. You say that a total change in attitude would be required by the Iranian regime. How so? In what respects? Would they have to kowtow to the demands of the US/Israeli axis in the manner of our so called moderate Arab allies? I hope not.

Thanks Shiveh for noting the right wing character of the Triune. I am not one who normally references right wingers, but I suppose as they say, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. ___ However, I think the article will find more admirers in Israel than Iran, since its theme is chiding Obama for allowing another year for negotiations and ineffective possible sanctions, thus granting Iran the time that it needs to complete its nuclear weapons development and deployment. ___ I found the claims about Iran’s “comprehensive covert infrastructure and web of clandestine relationships that would enable the marked escalation of violence in Afghanistan at Tehran's behest” to be most interesting if true. Can either you or Khairi confirm or deny this claim. If true, it would indeed provide great leverage with which to influence US policy with respect to Iran. ___ Also the news that “Obama is encouraging Turkey to expand its strategic relations with Iran and Syria…that the U.S. has no objection to relying on Iran as a primary source of natural gas for the Nabucco pipeline. With Turkmenistan committing to supplying the EU via Russia and the PRC, and with Azerbaijani supplies in doubt because of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Iran is indeed the sole viable source in the near term and thus will make or break Nabucco.” ___ It is all about energy, oil, natural gas and uranium. If the Arab League, could just get its act together and join forces with Iran and the SCO, they would have absolutely nothing to fear from the vaunted US/Israeli axis. I think this is the aim of the recent Iranian overture to Mubarak and the GCC; and I hope and believe that it will be successful.

I agree Shiveh, that no gesture great or small; as Rick would like to see, is likely to bridge the gap between the Arabs and the Iranian regime. What would be required is a total change in attitude by the Iranian regime, which will mean a total change of what it stands for. However, listening to Mr. Moussavi's latest statements; those of freedom of association, expression, and the participation of political parties in the polity of Iran, one is getting the impression that, he is putting himself in the mold of liberal democratic politics, a brand of politics which had been largely defeated at the time of the Shah, and then largely if not almost destroyed by the Islamic revolution in Iran. Therefore, I would say; and here I can only guess, that the liberal democratic movement in Iran is still very weak and still unprepared for any real bid to acquire power. What is difficult for the Iranian people in my humble opinion, is the fact that the current struggle is mainly between the Mullahs whom wish to acquire the regime back to their themselves, and the current Supreme Guide lead military-security regime.

Dear Rick thanks for the World Tribune article. In my opinion it is one sided enough to win gratitude from the mullah’s regime. Other articles from this site are also tilted right and are meant to hurt Obama. It presupposes that a friendly gesture from Iran can bring the Arab world to jubilation and resolve their fundamental grievances. Not so. I believe Khairi would agree also. Mullahs can not even bring themselves to change the name of a Tehran street to reduce tension with the Egyptian; that’s how deep the divisions are. // Obama is being as smart as Bush did dumb! Bush did a lot of shouting with Iran but no harm; I think Obama is talking calmly to Iran but planning a fatal blow. We’ll see in a year or so. // Dear Khairi, for the first time an opposition movement in Iran is using its brain instead of muscle. What is known as the Green Movement in Iran has both dept and reach without depending on centralized leadership. They know a violent conflict favors the regime, further they fear that another revolution can bring a new bunch of self-serving rulers to power. Been there, done that; they are not to repeat the same mistake again. Instead they are using their strengths which are their logic and rationality in a practical way. Majority of Iranian people have mentally and emotionally moved away from Theocratic ideals. All that Green Movement has to do is to force mullahs to act contrary to their religious pretences to shave off the remaining supporters. Khamenei and his supporters have been busy attacking and destroying last couple of weeks; but look closer and you’ll see they are attacking ayatollahs and destroying mosques. Mullahs are attacking their own support structure and destroying their own bases while the much smarter youth of the country is using the Internet to communicate and synchronize new ideas for the future. Regime has no choice other than to continue its path of violence and murder but even they know that by killing people they lose legitimacy and support. In a year or so, what is left of them will be forced to fold.

Just back from London actually. The question remains Rick, if Syria the ally of Iran is willing to help bringing stability to Iraq with Iranian consent, and if Iran is willing to help bring stability to Afghanistan, Yemen, not interfere in Arab affairs and negotiate all outstanding issues between itself and the Arab countries, then what kind of a hegemon it will be?. Of course under such circumstances, not only the Arab leaders would be mad not to allign themselves to Iran, but actually also, the whole western world. For the time being, I think this a little too far fetched for me. I know Shiveh, what I am going to say is not very popular, but I belive the opposition in Iran is still no more than a minor irritant for the Tehran regime, and it just brings it bad publicity. However, having said that, if they can overthrow the systen; which is highly unlikely, then all the better and good luck to them. Well, Rick, I never thought that regional cooperation in Asia and Eur-Asia, are bad things in any measure, nor the fact that countries are taking a tough stand vis a vis the USA. I think this is a very healthy indication for the future of things to come; most importantly, that the US has given up hopefully on its gun-ho attitude towards foreign relations.

… opens the way for Iran’s strategic ascent in Mideast. Khairi and Shiveh, you really must read this WorldTribune.com article: ___ http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/me_iran0992_12_28.asp ___ It is written by Yossef Bodansky, Senior Editor, Global Information System, and follows up on the Larijani secret proposal to Mubarak and other Arab leaders (among other things) that Shiveh alerted us to.

Yes Shveh, I have been following with interest the developments in Iran and the arrest of opposition leaders. Let’s hope that the predictions of your good self come to pass and the Mullah’s are replaced with a western style democracy and representative government. Also, what is good for Iran would be double good for the so-called moderate Arab states that we call allies. Can you imagine this kind of unrest flaring up in Egypt or Saudi Arabia. I am afraid that the Mullahs are about to crush it as effectively as would Mubarak or King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. ___ I think you overestimate the economic and intellectual leadership of the USA in the world. That time has long past. We are now bankrupt and powerless compared to China, Japan and the rising countries of the East and Near East, including energy rich Russia, Iran and Iraq. _ The below article that I cited in AsiaTimes.com maps how China and Russia will work together to market the energy rich resources of Central Asia to lock out Europe and the USA keeping us (and particularly Europe) more than ever dependent on them for energy. I hope you and Khairi both read it beginning to end. It is very well written by Ambassador Bhadrakumar of India and is a real eye opener.

Dear Rick, Debka suggests A Security Council resolution for Palestinian statehood is in the works and Israel will be unable to stop its passage (Mobarak initiative.) Also, Iranians are in the process of taking their country back from mullahs. Are we finally moving to the fast track? 2010 has all the makings of a bloody and decisive year. Leaders of both Israel and Iran might choose to take refuge in a manufactured conflict just to survive the year! // By the way, bunch of dictators with illusions of grandeur are not the ones to stop America. They can be annoying but only to a point. There are a few countries that can compete economically and intellectually with US. Let’s hope they’ll rise with US and shape next few decades together. None of the alternatives are something to wish for!

A good article in AsiaTimes.com by MK Bhadrakumar… ___ China has won the right to build a 7000 km pipeline to link the regions gas fields to cities on China’s eastern seaboard. ___ How did China win this competition? By providing Chinese farmers to farm one million hectares of Kazakh land to cultivate crops such as soya and rape seed. ___ Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president of Kazakhstan recently told global oil and metal majors that new laws would allow only those foreign investors that cooperate with his industrialization program to tap his nation's mineral resources. ___ "We will work only with those who propose projects helping diversification of the economy," he said at a December 4 investment conference in Astana, the Kazakh capital, which was attended by ArcelorMittal, Chevron, Total, ENRC and other investors. To any unwilling to collaborate, he said: "We will look for new partners, offer them favorable conditions and resources to fulfill projects." ___ Nazarbayev's message was direct: Western investors could keep their money if interested only in exploiting Kazakhstan's mineral wealth. The president was speaking as a momentous event in the history and politics of Central Asia was resetting the terms of engagement for foreigners in the region: the development of an ambitious 7,000 kilometer pipeline to link the region's gas fields to cities on China's eastern seaboard. ___ The Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline has already opened on December 14, 2009.

An interesting article at AsiaTimes.com by Spengler: ___ http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KL24Ag01.html ___The writer predicts that: “Those who wanted an end to US hegemony will get what they wished for. But they won't like it.” ___ He says the one thing that we absolutely cannot have is a failed Pakistani state, yet Obama’s strategy of denying the Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuary in Afghanistan, and forcing the Pakistanis to help support the fight, will guarantee just that…a failed state in Pakistan taken over by Islamists. ___ Who is this guy Spengler? He makes some pretty wild claims. The credits at the end of the article say that Spengler is “channeled by” David P. Goldman, senior editor at First Things (www.firstthings.com). ___ From Wikipedis: David P. Goldman is an economist and author. He came from an essentially secular left-wing Jewish family and was an atheist as a young man. He was a member of the Zionist-Socialist youth organization Hashomer Hatzair. In 1976 he joined the LaRouche movement. ___ That explains it; he’s a real crack pot.

Secretary Clinton called Japanese Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki on the carpet during the recent snow storm to complain about Japanese opposition to moving the US Marine Base from one part of Okinawa to another, an extremely rare occurrence. ___ U.S. and Asian officials are alarmed over the turn in relations with Japan since Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama led an opposition party to victory in August elections, ending an almost uninterrupted five decades of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party. ___ Hatoyama campaigned on promises he would be more assertive than previous Japanese leaders in dealings with the United States. He and his coalition partners want the base removed. ___ Couple this with recent events such as Hatoyama's call for an East Asian Community with China and South Korea, excluding the United States; the unusually warm welcome given to Xi Junping, China's vice president, on his trip to Japan this month, which included an audience with the emperor; and the friendly reception given to Saeed Jalili, the Iranian national security council secretary, during his visit to Japan last week and we can see that the handwriting is on the wall Khairi.

Iran cut all official ties with Egypt when Sadat signed the Camp David peace treaty with Israel in 1979, before the Nobel Peace Prize-winning president granted asylum to the overthrown Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the wake of Iran's Islamic revolution. ___ The rift between the two countries further widened when Iran named a street in Tehran after Egyptian Islamist Khaled El Islambouli, the man accused of assassinating Sadat in 1981. In late 2008, Tehran criticized the Egyptian regime for taking part in the Gaza blockade against Israel. Egypt countered that Iran was seeking more power in the region by supporting Palestinian movement Hamas and Hezbollah of Lebanon. ___ It is rumored that Mubarak’s stated conditions to Iran’s envoy Larijani during his recent visit requesting renewed ties with Iran included: (1) the removal of a large mural of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's assassin from a street in Tehran as well as (2) an end to Iran's interference in internal Arab affairs. These were the two main conditions to be met before restoring any formal relations.

Thanks for the DEBKA Files reference Shiveh. I find many other interesting articles there, in addition to the one that provoked your comment on the Iranian secret proposal to Egypt’s Mubarak and other Arab leaders. I wonder how that initiative is progressing…haven’t heard more about it in he past few days. ___ Here is another link to a similar article that was posted on December 21... ___ http://www.raceforiran.com/will-america%E2%80%99s-arab-allies-strike-their-own-deal-with-iran ___ This link talks about the new “Cold War” between those states willing to work in a strategic partnership with the United States, with an implied acceptance of American hegemony over the region. This camp includes Israel, those Arab states that have made peace with Israel (Egypt and Jordan), and other so-called moderate Arab states (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council). ___ On the other side of this divide are those Middle Eastern states and non-state actors that are unwilling to legitimize American (and, some in this camp would say, Israeli) hegemony over the region. The Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged in recent years as the de facto leader of this camp, which also includes Syria and prominent non-state actors such as HAMAS and Hizballah. ___ Notwithstanding its close security ties to the United States, Qatar has also aligned itself with the “resistance” camp on some issues in recent years. And, notwithstanding Turkey’s longstanding membership in NATO and ongoing European “vocation”, the rise of the Justice Development Party and declining military involvement in Turkish politics have prompted an intensification of Ankara’s diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, in ways that give additional strategic options to various actors in the “resistance” camp. ___ Re: the Mitchell visit Khairi...I'm sure he will announce that we are “very disappointed” in the continued settlement expansion and this will of course have zero effect on the Israelis and continue to dispel all hope for the Palestinians.

I think the countries mentioned by your good self Rick, are trying to tell the US that they have their own interests to pursue and that they are no push-overs, rather than present themselves as a challenge to the US. On the settlements issue, the tragi-comedy of it, is that, the us has rejected the Israeli plans and is sending Mr. Mitchell to the area to re-start the talks again. It seems he is carrying a letter of gurantees to the Israelis and one to the Palestinians. I wonder what the letters will he be guranteeing to the Israelis; no Palestinian state?. And to the Palestinians; a Palestinian state?.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel announced plans on Monday to build nearly 700 new homes for Jews in areas of the occupied West Bank it considers part of Jerusalem, a city it has excluded from a limited moratorium on settlement construction.

...the current status quo of US/Israeli axis hegemony does not make it acceptable in the near or far future. The times they are a changing Khairi, and it is for the better. Iran is right to challenge this domination by US/Israel, and the Arab league will join them if they know what is in their best interest. Russia, China, and other SCO member states and Brazil will also happily join them in beginning to establish the new world order. Hopefully it will be more just than the present US/Israeli hegemony, as exhibited by the illegal treatment of Palestinians, occupation of Palestine and illegal “preventive” wars in Iran and Afghanistan.

Rick, that the world powers may well be hypocritical, and Dr, Afrasiabi is making a good point, and the anticipated sanctions will certainly prove to be a failure, yet, the world has accepted the US nuclear weapons as a fact of life; whether it likes or not. It has accepted Israel's nuclear weapons implicitly as a fait accompli, while all the world powers have rejected Iran having nuclear weapons. Again, the sensible thing to do for Iran under such unfavourable circumstances, is really to start cooperating immediately in order to prove that it does not intend to develop nuclear weapons.

Seriously though Khairi, that starts at home don’t you think? Don’t you think that Dr. Afrasiabi makes a good point? I do. When the US and Israel pound their own nuclear warheads into plowshares, perhaps they will have grounds for attacking Iran, or anyone else who wants to defend themselves. I think Iran is on to something here. ___ At any rate it is clear to me that the UN sanctions will go nowhere when they convene in mid-January to “attack” this issue. It will just be a bunch of hypocrites sitting around a table trying to find a way to punish Iran for a sin that we are all guilty of to a greater degree than Iran could even begin to approach.

I suppose your good self's Iran do-gooder bit, Rick, must be taken in the spirit of the season; brotherly love and all that, otherwise, I would say that your good self's sense of humour is marvellous. When the effects of the season wear of, I suppose we'll all come back to calling a spade, a spade.

Dr. Afrasiabi has an interesting article posted at AsiaTimes.com on why Iran may be giving the impression that it is pursuing nuclear weapons. It may be fulfilling its self-perceived role as a global leader by acting to force other world leaders to seriously consider nuclear disarmament. ___ And why does Iran seem to be more interested in global strategic issues than regional ones? An interviewed diplomat had this response: “It's due to the dynamism of Iran's historical revolution and the fact that Tehran has a long history of empire-building. However, the Iranian diplomat was quick to elaborate that Iran's intention was not join the "world empires" but rather to "transform the world toward a more just order". In other words, it is an inherent logic of the post-revolutionary state to resist the unjust global hierarchy and join other nations seeking to restructure it along "equitable lines". Those lines cover economic, political, military and geostrategic considerations, including nuclear arms races and disarmament.” ___ There you have it Khairi and Shiveh. Iran is just an incorrigible do-gooder, trying to cancel the evils perpetrated on the world by the vicious US/Israeli axis of evil.

Your good self's posting Rick, reminded me of an anecdote told by a famous Lebanese historian while I was having the privilige of serving with him years ago. During one of his lectures at the AUB; in Beirut, one of his students challenged him regarding what he was saying, which contradicted what he had written in one of his books before. So the Professor turned around and said : if you find the man whom had written that book, please send him my regards. Again Seasonal greetings to your good self and Shiveh, and to everyone else reading our postings in their phantom capacity.

“Mubarak's Gulf tour started shortly after he had a rare high-profile meeting in Cairo with Ali Larijani, Iranian parliament’s speaker, prompting speculation that Tehran is seeking a new approach to improve its strained relations with Arab states by offering a new wide-ranging proposal and that Mubarak will be discussing it with Arab allies.” [As reported by GulfNews.com] ___ “Mubarak was galvanized by the message Larijani brought from Tehran containing the offer of "a new Iranian approach to resolving outstanding issues." Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already offered to open an embassy in Cairo for the first time since ties were broken off after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution.” [From DEBKA article] ___ “Iran's offer of a new beginning includes a form of Iranian-Arab nuclear cooperation. Its immediate objective is to close ranks with the Arab nations in order to outmaneuver the US-Israeli campaign against its nuclear drive, thereby derailing the US president Barack Obama's plans for drawing Europe, Russian and China into approving another round of harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic.”___ “The bloc of Arab nations, which Mubarak and Saudi king Abdullah lead, has given up on effective action by America or Israel, including force, for throwing Iran off its current nuclear course. Within the region today, coexistence with Iran looks like a safer bet. If this burgeoning realignment of Middle East partnerships goes forward, the region's strategic balance will be pulled out of shape, Washington's influence heavily downgraded and Israel isolated.” ___ [Interesting indeed Shiveh, thanks for the link…it’s about time the Sunnis and Shi’ites pull together to break the US/Israeli hegemony!!]

Thank you for the link Shiveh, it was great fun reading over our old posts of yester year and I see that our opinions have not changed in the least: ___ Shiveh: A nuclear Iran is good for peace in the Middle East because of its deterrence effect…Israel and/or America will not dare attack her if she has nuclear weapons. (March 8, 2008...5:43 PM) ___ Khairi: A successful US attack on Iran is not possible anyway quoting 80% of US military officers polled. (March 5, 2009...3:13 PM) ___ Khairi saying that Iran has enormous power and influence in the region…Shiveh saying that this power has little depth as it can go only as far as the US will tolerate. The US could easily destroy Iran and fracture it into autonomous regions. ___ Khairi countering that on the contrary, Iranian influence is not skin deep, primarily because of Islam, and quoting King Abdullah IInd of Jordan as saying Iran is spreading a Shi’ite Crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean, Prince Saud al Faisal saying US intervention in Iraq is strengthening Shi’ite political influence in the region, and Mubarak complaining that Shi’ites in Arab countries are loyal to Iran rather than their own countries. ___ Reminds me of our exchange of a few days ago Shiveh, me lamenting the inability of Sunnis and Shia to reconcile their differences and you saying that this was not the major source of instability in the region.

Before travelling to the Gulf, President Mubarak met with Iraqi prime minister al Maliki, then Russian foreign minister Lavrov, and then Mr. Larijani. I guess Cairo was the hub of intense diplomatic activity in the last few days, however, irrespective of what Debka says, the fact that President Mubarak has gone on the visit to the Gulf himself; as opposed to sending his foreign minister or even Chief of Intelligence, indicates that there is more to this trip on Egyptian bi-lateral relations with the Gulf states, than anything else.

acquires nuclear weapons, then the potential for a nuclear war will increase with almost near certainity Rick. Therefore, it is no consolation if Iran and Israel attack each other with nuclear weapons when they take the whole Middle East with them under sinders. Seasonal Greetings to you Shiveh, and Seasonal Greetings to you Rick.

Mubarak on urgent trip to Gulf about Iran's reconciliation move DEBKAfile Special Report http://www.debka.com/index1.php

Dear Rick, khairi and I discussed the nuclear issue in more detail in this same forum on March 2008. You may find it at the following address if interested: http://www.secure-x-001.net/SecureGeo/Issue/SecureObservationComments.asp?IssueFunction=108&IssuDate=3/4/2008&Site=109&Portal=1 With Best wishes for a peaceful, safe and joyous year for you both, Happy Holidays

…during Iraq’s auction of oil rights last weekend. US firm ExxonMobil and Anglo-Dutch Shell did win the right five weeks ago to develop the West Qurna Phase I field. But the British company BP and China's CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) have signed terms for the development of the huge Rumaila oil field, at 17.8 billion barrels (Bbbl) over twice the size of West Qurna 1, which holds at least 7 Bbbl of recoverable oil, and Italy's Eni has signed to develop the 4.1-Bbbl Zubair oil field along with Korea Gas and Occidental Petroleum. ___ In the latest round of bidding, in which 10 more fields were offered, of over 40 companies constellated in various consortia, only seven firms present at the auction were American and only one actually entered a bid. ___ For West Qurna Stage 2, out of four consortia submitting bids, the winners were Russia's Lukoil and Norway's Statoil, which will split shares respectively of 63.75% and 11.25% after an Iraqi state partner comes on board as intended with a 25% share. While West Qurna 1 went to ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, West Qurna 2 is the larger resource, with estimated reserves of over 12 Bbbl. ___ I think this is the trend of the future Khairi and Shiveh. The rich oil fields in Iraq and Iran will be developed with the primary assistance and influence of SCO members China and Russia, with the hated west being gradually more and more excluded. It is only a matter of time until Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States jump on board this bandwagon. Then it will be impossible for the US/Israeli axis to maintain its domination of the region.

…and a nuclear Iran with the potential to use it against Israel. Therefore in your own words…then “certainly, I would advocate an attack against Iran”. Pardon my persistence on this issue Khairi, but this is I think a very important issue of our time.

my position is clear Rick. I don't advocate war against Iran. If the choice is between a conventional war to stop Iran having the "A" bomb, and a potential nuclear war in the future, or using atomic weapons by Iran as a peg to seek domination over the region, then certainly, I would advocate an attack against Iran. Otherwise, any such attack under any other pretext would be in my humble opionion; a crime against humanity. And I join your good self's condemnation Shiveh of any group of people whom insist on a ghetto mentality.

Thank you khairi for pointing out that most French citizens of North African origin are culturally in sync with French society. Although my criticism was aimed at the immigrants who have willingly detached themselves from the French culture, I failed to make the distinction.

First you say, “…I am the last one to call for war”… and then: we cannot allow the current Iranian leadership to obtain a nuclear weapon (paraphrased)…and then: preferably it will be the US that attacks Iran (paraphrased)…___ You are calling for the US to attack Iran to keep them from acquiring the nuclear weapon. This is opposite the view of Shiveh and myself who say it is mad to attack Iran… ___ it is better to let them have the nuclear weapon than to attack them. ___ I am not saying of course that we are right and you are wrong; just that we have differing opinions on this issue.

I think I missed the point Rick, rather than dodged the questions intentionally. On religious manifestations, I am wihtout a shadow of hesitation against such displays, but so long as, a French Jew doesn't wear a Kippa, a Christian French doesn't display the sign of the cross, and muslim woman doesn't cover her head. As for Iran, I think by now I made it very clear that I am the last one to call for war and violence, let alone a likely war with devastating effect such as against Iran, Nevertheless, as Shiveh implied, a nuclear weapon in the hands of the current lot in the leadership of Iran is really no joke, therefore, it is far too dangerous to allow to happen, and preferably it will be the US that attacks Iran, in order to stave of a bigger evil by using a lesser evil.

Yep Shiveh, Khairi is trying to follow your good self’s example and dodge the difficult question. But we won’t let him get away with it. Whereas you reluctantly admit, if it comes down to it, you prefer to allow the Mullah’s to develop nuclear weapons, rather than to allow an attack on Iran by either the US or Israel. ___ Khairi, you refuse to say that you do or do not want anyone to attack Iran, though I think that you secretly do; but say if anyone does it, better the US than Israel. I think that the title of your post (a warmonger?) is a hint that you really want Obama to attack Iran. ___ With regards to the treatment of Muslims in France Shiveh, that is a difficult issue. You say (I believe) that the Muslims cannot expect to be allowed to parade their religion publicly for all to see, lest it offend those of different beliefs; but should practice it quietly, out of site, behind closed doors. I suppose that if they were to have the call to worship blaring from loudspeakers disturbing the peace of others, that could be an issue. Otherwise, simply building a mosque with minarets on private property, or wearing the burqa, should not be an issue in my view. I‘m not sure where you stand on the issue Khairi, except to blame the government, a popular pass time in our country as well. And I think that you are right, Sarkozy’s instance on having the National Identity debate, against the better advice of some advisors, may be reminding people of their differences and contributing to the problem. That was certainly the opinion of the cleric whose mosque was vandalized.___ But let me add that I’m sure that we all oppose the act of vandalism and intimidation of desecrating a particular mosque in France, as Shiveh has stated, and which prompted my post in the first place. This is against the law and must not be tolerated. Shiveh however went further to say that Muslims must be an unobtrusive component blending in with French society, and the definition of unobtrusive is where we get into disagreements.

One is really no demographer nor a social scientist, so I can't really pretend to be either, however, what one can say is just based purely on mere observation from both sides of the divide; the Maghreb countries as well as France. At the same time, one is not blaming the state; the French state in this case, rather putting the onus on it, because it is the only entity with enough resources and capability to deal with this issue, and indeed, with many other issues. Coming from the Middle East, something which I always found fascinating, is the difference in the colonial experience in both the countries of the Near East {Mashreq} and those of North Africa [Maghreb]. Perhaps the only similarity in effect I could see, was actually in India and Pakistan but even here, the influence was only limited to the elites in both societies. When British colonialism followed usually policies of uncombined and uneven development in their colonies, for economic exploitation, the French approach towards their North African colonies; specifically Algeria, was that of incorporation into metropolitan France, but elsewehere also, did not escape the French civilizational mission in the colonies. Of course Lebanon and Syria were mandates and carried a different status under France. The effect of the French culture is very evident on the first generation of North African immigrants in France; ie those with first hand colonial experience, and they have been always Muslims and no one actually for many years saw their religion or their country of origin as ill-adapted to France. Indeed there are now third generation French Muslims, whom have no home but France, no culture but the culture of where they live, and no language but French. In other words they are French like any other French, even religion has no place in their private lives. Does that make it easier for him/her to live, more than the new waves of immigrants whom have a totally different experience and religion may play a bigger role in their lives?. No, it doesn't at all. Actually a few years ago the main troubles were started by the descendents of the "Harakis" whom fought for the French during the Algerian war of liberation, and it was all about rights and racism rather than Islam and religion. Ultimately, for the overwhelming majority of North African immigrants in France, they have only one home, and that is France, and they have no other home to go to. They are not illegal immigrants or without papers, NO, they are French citizens, with the same rights and obligations as the rest. Essentially, this is what the French state has to deal with,whether the carrot or the stick or both, their problems are actually the problems of their country; France, and simply they are not going to disappear like a bad dream.

Eloquently positioned but vaguely described Khairi; Rick might even say you are avoiding a direct answer. Regarding the problem in France, you are putting the blame on the French government and society expecting them to do even more. And find a scapegoat in their secular ideology and distaste for communitarianism. I tend to believe that the French secularism and even Europe’s multiculturalism has developed within the borders of the European society and is unable to process cultures so opposite to their own. Tribalism is an inborn defense and stays within all of us no matter how much we try to ideologically free ourselves of it. It is easier to live in France for people that look French and it gets harder as you move away from it. Governments try to even the field through anti-discrimination laws and regulations as much as possible but the problem is inherent and hurts the immigrants to the extend that they are different. The question I proposed was not regarding “how” it was more of a “why” question. Going back to the origin, the way you did with Iran’s nuclear question, would help here also. Why 5,000,000 people from outside a culture should be allowed to tear up the fabric of that culture and destroy the unity of purpose within that society. I see no problem in keeping the gates open for the ones that believe in or can accept or at least live with the French way of life but do not see any compelling reason for or any benefit to changing the French way of life to accommodate people who do no intend to change accordingly; people who should not have come if they did not want to join.

Indeed Shiveh it is fireplace and chopping wood time unfortunately at my age. The snow has melted for now in and around Paris, so I hope it will stay like this not to hamper our plans to go to London next week. There are many socio-economic problems in France, and I think the rigidity of the French Republican ethos has plenty to do with these problems. France has entered a straightjacket of its own making, because it does not believe in the notion of "communitarianism" while on the other hand the "Laic" [closest translation would be secular]system is not a neutral value that can help in integrating all the citizens of France. So we ended up over here with the rejection of communitarianism and the failure of integration. I am afraid this national identity debate, is a mere gloss over the problems in order to appear to be doing something while in effect, we end up in an endless cycle of talk which will only aggrevate some, and frustrate others. I don't know why President Sarkozy is not talking about a new national social vision for France of the future. I mean he is talking about new things on almost every occasion !!. As for Iran Rick, I think we should go back to square one of this argument. Iran denies that it intends to develop nuclear weapons, and there is no evidence currently that the regime in Iran is not telling the truth. However, since there is strong international resistance to any attempts of Iran developing such weapons; and as the Iranian regime says it doesn't intend to, Tehran can do much more than it is doing now, to alleviate the fears and suspicions of the international community, by showing straightforward cooperation and transparency over its nuclear programme. The subject of Israel in this context, crops up invariably, and indeed it should at least on moral grounds, but when the overwhelming majority in the international community, seem to have accepted implicitly, the Israeli nuclear programme as fait accompli, but rejects any such potential for Iran, and threaten to go to war over it, the option for Iran is clear; either the regime cooperates or risks attacks. And if there are going to be attacks, I certainly prefer the US to do it rather than Israel. When it comes to Mr. Hariri, he started his career as a leader of one Lebanese block of political groups, and reflected the hopes, aspirations and political stance of this block. But when he became a prime minister, the office gave him the leadership of the whole of Lebanon and not only the leadership of a section of Lebanese society. Therefore, it is no longer what the preferences of the block that he had lead before which matter, rather the interests of the whole of Lebanon and all its politcial components.

An article in Israel’s YnetNews.com says: “Saad al-Hariri’s meeting with Bashar Assad constitutes one of the greatest achievements for the Syrian president’s policy, as well as surrender – even if polite and surrounded by pomp and circumstances – by the head of Lebanon’s anti-Syrian camp.” ___ “On the strategic front Assad does not rest either: Only last week he signed yet another defense memorandum with Iran whose details are unknown as of yet.” ___ “There was no Lebanese leader who did not visit Assad or at least send his condolences for his brother’s death. Even Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is reportedly expected to leave his hideout and personally offer his condolences to the Syrian president. So overall, despite the mourning, it appears Assad has good reasons to smile.” ___ What do you make of this Khairi? Syria and Iran in the drivers seat and capitulation of al-Hariri?

Amen to that brother. On that we are in 100% agreement. I don’t think that our good friend Khairi sees it that way…do you Khairi?

I like to see Iranians mastering all aspects of nuclear technology. But I do not want to see this bunch controlling Iran’s resources at the present become even more belligerent by adding nuclear to their armament. Best case scenario would be regime change before nuclear mastery. But, if the only way to stop the present regime from adding the bomb is to attack Iran, then I would prefer to let them have the bomb. Nuclear Mullahs are a big headache, but attacking Iran is pure madness.

You don’t want to express an opinion, Shiveh, on whether Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, or is entitled to build a nuclear weapon, given that the US/Israeli axis and others feel the need to have them for “self defense”? ___ Let me guess, this is another area that you and Khairi have a different view of the situation. Is an attack on Iran by the US/Israeli axis eminent or justifiable?

Dear Rick, Latino Immigrants are the closest you could come to compare the situation with France and North African immigrants. But in reality it is not even close. The cultural differences between Latino immigrants and US general population are minimal. In fact those cultures could be considered closely paralleled compared to borga wearing masculine culture of the latter group which in many cases is opposite the French culture. Please also note that French law protects the right to worship of all French residents and prosecutes harassment incidents. Bigotry has no place in my opinion.

…thought provoking. It is good for me to make me think…but oh so difficult…lol. ___ I guess it could be analogous to our fear of Mexican emigrants, taking our jobs, using our Medicaid benefits and schools, that we have earned by years of tax paying that they get overnight…and they don’t even have the common decency to learn our language. They expect our businesses, banks, etc to offer services in their language. ___ You say we are different in that we are a nation built by immigrants, but we certainly seem to resent our neighboring invaders from south of the border. Although feelings are mixed. Big businesses, like Walmart, like the invading work force which works cheap, with no benefits. Just like our businesses also like to export our manufacturing capability to China for the cheap labor. ___ So where does all this leave us? I think that we Norteamericanos and Europeans must accept a dramatic reduction in our standard of living to be competitive in the world marketplace. And there is no place for acts of vandalism, or desecration of immigrant places of worship, or attacks on citizens because of their style of clothing in either of our societies.

Regarding Iran’s future, Rick, let me just rely on the old saying that “people deserve the system that governs them” and add that the youth of Iran can not and will not be governed by any system less than what they deserve and demand. This in my opinion is a democratic and forward looking system. The events in Iran are moving into the fast track. 2010 should be a decisive year. Let’s see.

Dear Rick, an open society behaves differently from a closed society in such situations and I believe I did hint on the difference. But there is a basic reason for pushing such a different culture away in countries like France that has nothing to do with compassion or civility. A society, a country, a nation is functional and stays together for as long as there is a common bond that keeps them together as a unit. In the old world this bond is made of common language and/or ethnicity and/or culture and includes a shared history and desired future. In the US, a hegemonic system has developed that embraces different nationalities and cultures in a unique mix of commonality and shared purpose. The problem with Moslem immigrants who moved mostly from northern Africa to France and total about 5 million is that they insist on a subculture that is so different and in contrast to the French culture that damages the fabric of the French society and their unity of purpose. The Moslems immigrated to France not because they felt closer to the French way of life, but because of the opportunities it offered them. This is a wrong approach to immigration. With opportunity comes responsibility. A society that extends a helping hand to pull up another does not expects to be pulled down by that other. This is exactly what the French immigrants are doing by forcing an incompatible culture into the fabric of the French unity. They are weakening the bond that makes French a unique nation. This is not the deal the French signed into and they have every right to re-evaluate and to even reject it. //It would be very deferent if it was the French who had decided to convert to Islamic way of life. But that is not the case. This feels quite understandably like an invasion to them and they are reacting to it as such.

Military force would have little chance of success in stopping Iran’s supposed nuclear weapon development program. But we will be prepared to use it anyway in 2010 if needed. So says the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. ___ "Most critically, Iran's internal unrest, unpredictable leadership and sponsorship of terrorism make it a regional and global concern," heightened by what Mullen called "its determined pursuit of nuclear weapons." ___ What are your thoughts on this Shiveh? My own opinion is that Iran has the right to develop its nuclear power capability, including weaponry, as long as the rest of the world is. The US/Israeli axis in particular have abrogated any right to object by their own behavior. ___ As for labeling Iran as an exporter of terrorism, that is also in the eye of the beholder. Most of the world I suspect sees Hamas and Hezbollah as freedom fighters backing the underdog in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict; and US/Israel as the axis of evil and exporter of terrorism in the form of white phosphorus bombs used against innocent population centers in the hopes of killing an occasional “terrorist”.

Much attention will be focused on the surge in Afghanistan, but next year could be even more pivotal in Iraq. These are the thoughts of Fareed Zakaria as expressed in his column in today’s WP. Can you access this article on the web Khairi and Shiveh? ___ Your comments on the rights and privileges of Muslims in France are thought provoking Shiveh. I had not considered this in that light. I only saw the injustice being done to Muslims for observing their religious beliefs. ___ Sorry Shiveh, but after rethinking the situation, I come to the same opinion as before. Just because other closed minded or brainwashed societies choose to behave in a particular manner does not excuse that behavior in supposedly free thinking and open societies in my view.

Hope you are both enjoying cozy evenings near fireplace watching snow from behind windows in DC and Paris. We had regular winter weather in California, 75 f and sunny! One always wants things one does not have. This takes me to the other subject of your posts. The future of immigrants in France and the reaction to a culture that is clearly not French. Imagine a subculture in Mecca that likes to party, enjoys wine and kissing in the streets. Imagine women of this subculture walking in the streets around Kabbe with mini skirts and walking topless on the beaches of the Persian Gulf. Now imagine how the Saudi Arabs feel when they hear that newcomers of this subculture are and should be considered as Saudi citizens and their behavior part of the totality of Saudi cultural identity. If this happens in Saudi Arabia, there will be a massacre; in France they want a national debate. Maybe that is why immigrants with a culture so different from the local norms go to France and not Saudi Arabia.

Indeed we have snow Rick over here, but we are not snowed under;yet. For some time now, we have been having ideas of one "flying circus" after another. So, God knows what else will crop up next after this national debate fizzles out. Actually I haven't thought before, whether I am loved or otherwise, but thanks for drawing my attention, I suppose, I have to give it a bit of serious thought.

When Muslim worshipers showed up at the Bilal Mosque early Sunday morning, they found two pig's ears and a poster of the French flag stapled to the door; a pig's snout dangled from the doorknob. "White power" and "Sieg heil" were spray-painted on one side, they recalled, and "France for the French" on the other. ___ For Abdelmalek Bouregba, head of the Castres Islamic Association, which administers the mosque, the vandalism was a troubling sign of the times. Signals are flashing everywhere that France is increasingly uneasy with its more than 5 million Muslims, he said, and the atmosphere has soured particularly since President Nicolas Sarkozy's government last month began what it calls "a great debate on national identity." ___ for Abdelmalek Bouregba, head of the Castres Islamic Association, which administers the mosque, the vandalism was a troubling sign of the times. Signals are flashing everywhere that France is increasingly uneasy with its more than 5 million Muslims, he said, and the atmosphere has soured particularly since President Nicolas Sarkozy's government last month began what it calls "a great debate on national identity." ___ And a small-town mayor from the Sarkozy coalition, André Valentin, warned during a government-sponsored national identity debate last week that "we are going to be gobbled up" unless something is done to halt the influx of immigrants, who he said "are paid to do nothing." ___ Are you feeling unloved Khairi?

Do you get much snow in Paris Khairi? We are getting clobbered in the Washington D.C. area. Have close to 12 inches already and expect get16 to 24 inches before it quits. I expect that our friend Shiveh does not have this problem in Sunny California.

The source of this rumour seems to be an article published in the London based; al Quds al Arabi newspaper. Mind you I never thought I would be in the same mind as the CIA!!!. On the National Priority Scheme, what Mr. Netanyahu has being doing till now, is pursuing a peace policy to end all peace prospects.

Did you know Khairi that the Israeli government has established a National Priority Areas program in which the citizens of certain West Bank settlements are given millions of dollars of state funding. The move is a gesture to settlers who are furious at the government for agreeing to the 10 month moratorium on new settlement construction after months of pressure from the US. These communities will receive 41 million dollars which will benefit 110,000 settlers.

It has a good ring to it Khairi, and it sounds very much like your proposal for a Jordan/West Bank merge. It may be workable. I did a Google search on it and came up with this link: http://www.harhoma.com/confederation/questionsAndAnswers.aspx ___ It has a rather lengthy article on the subject which I have not completely read and don’t know, but doubt that it is associated with the CIA. Perhaps the CIA has a similar plan in the works and borrowed harhoma.com’s name for their plan. ___ Going to the harhoma.com web page we see that it is owned by a real estate outfit named Makor. Makor Issues and Rights Ltd. owns 568,000 square meters of land on Har Homa neighborhood in Jerusalem and has an option to buy additional 364,000 square meters there, a total of 932,000 sq. meters. Makor planned to build on this land 6,500 apartments, 3 hotels and shopping center in eight stages. The total sales volume was estimated to $1.5 Billion. In 1991 the land in Har Homa owned by Makor was confiscated by the Israeli government for the same purpose, to build residential neighborhood. The company is entitled to receive just compensation. Since then, Makor has successfully entered into the field of High - Tech Developments and became High-Tech Investment Company. ___The issue of Har Homa is known to the public and the media as an issue of dispute between Palestinians and Israelis, where each side claims its right to control the area.

There are rumours Rick, to the effect that the CIA is floating the idea, of a future conferderation between Jordan, Israel and Palestine; under the title of "Holy Land confederation". I wonder if there are new ideas emerging, away from the two-state solution. Something which we have been both sceptical about.

Shiveh is a tough act to follow, and your good self Rick always provides us with informed opinion about the Middle East, as for religions, well, keeping with my philosophy of having a fire exit, I suppose I am no sceptic when it comes to foxholes. Please Shiveh, your contributions are most welcome, and as Rick says, it has become lonely for us on this forum since everyone seems to have deserted us for better things in life. As far as one is concerned, one tries as a rule to be detached from one's own writings, but then again, as a person born in war and turmoil, and has seen nothing but that for most of his life, I guess in the manner of self-psycho analysis, it becomes natural to hold on to the little left of peace for as long as possible.

Thank you and a thousand pardons for my butchering of your name last post. Of course Khairi and I will much appreciate your contributions to our discussions. As you can tell we have been feeling desperately lonely and abandoned by all for some months now. Welcome back. And I agree with your comment that all religions are man made.

Dear Rick, I appreciate your response. Since you showed interest, and because it is only fair, let me explain that I am an Iranian born/ raised male, presently residing in California as a citizen of the United States for over 3 decades. I’m of Persian (Arian) race -not Semite as you suspected- and Moslem ancestry; but am certain!! That all religions are man-made, so I should be considered as a non-believer. // Let me extend my best to you and Khairi and wish you many years of dialog through mediums such as this one. If you would not consider it an intrusion, I may join you in this forum for a little chat from time to time.

I was curious what your opinion would be and am happy to receive it. I respect your opinion and that of my good friend Khairi which is practically the same as yours. Knowing Khairi’s background as a former citizen of Jordan, a respected professional journalist, and a civil servant serving the royal family as press liason I believe (or something similar, that is not quite right), I have a particularly high regard for his opinions. Not knowing your background, you are clearly very familiar with the region, perhaps you are a Jewish person now living in LA I seem recall from one of your previous posts of long ago. In any case thank you for your response. ___ Having never been to the region myself, and only knowing what I see on TV and read in the paper, I am clearly the least informed among us on this subject. However, I agree with your good self that the Palestinians have been grievously wronged by the Israelis with the strong backing of my country. The UN partition of Palestine in 1947 was a foreseeable disaster then and remains so today. The Israelis seem to be intent on continued settlement expansion, sole ownership of Jerusalem, and control of the Jordan River Valley and West Bank aquifer water supply system with no intention of ever sharing this fairly with the Palestinians. ___ I wish the Israelis and Palestinians the best in finding the will to accept one another and live peacefully side by side as you and Khairi so ardently wish but I must say that I do not believe it is not in the cards. I think that the mistake of 1947 must be corrected and the land returned to its previous Arab rule.

Dear Rick, a few days ago, I responded to your post with a line in passing which if you permit me I would like to repeat here. I said “Just imagine what cousins can do if they combine Jewish know how with Arab muscle and wealth.” Let me also add that I understand and greatly appreciate values such as honor and dignity. To always do what is right and resist the wrong are among the highest virtues a human can hope to live by. I also do believe that Palestinians were wronged. So why is it that I can’t agree with you in this matter? Give me a chance to explain. In addition to honor and dignity there are other virtues that I also consider and value; among them are rational thinking, duty to your children and belief in common good. These also apply to the Palestinian/Israeli situation. This generation of Palestinians (Arabs) and Israelis (Jews) are poisoned with hatred. It is irrational to expect them to forget all the harm they have caused each other and become good neighbors; but it is not out of the rim of rationality to expect them to think about what they are leaving their children and the whole of humanity. I can find no dignity in offering my child a life full of death and destruction while children like him all around the world can enjoy a life full of knowledge and prosperity. How honorable it really is to condemn another generation of Palestinian and Israelis to a life of hatred and missed opportunities? This must stop and both Arabs and Jews of this generation must find a way to stop it. A good place to start is to throw away unachievable dreams. Jews will never rule the “Greater Israel”; Arabs won’t let them. Arabs need to accept the Jews as neighbors; they are not going anywhere. They have claims to parts of this land going back over 5000 years. So, start negotiating with this understanding that neither is going anywhere. Do it for next generations of Arab and Jews. Do it for humanity and do it because this is the only rational, sane, as well as dignified and honorable thing to do. If this generation can just learn to live together, the next will learn to cooperate and prosper together. The alternative is to fight and die in misery while the rest of humanity walks the path to our next stage of development. The best that other Arab and Moslem countries can do for Palestinians is to help them see the reality of the situation and work toward a workable solution. And that is what I believe our freind Khairi is saying.

I think your good self assumes that we are talking about a sudden, drastic, suicidal change in course Khairi, which is not the case at all. We are talking about a slow change that occurs over the coming decades as world oil and natural gas supplies diminish and as the balance of power as a result gradually flows from the west to the east...from NATO to the SCO. It will be a very natural thing, not a form of suicide for Arab leaders to join Iran, which is already partitioning for admittance to the SCO.

Of course Rick, your good self can describe the situation as you like, but ultimately, when the choice for a whole nation is between suicide and making the best of a bad situation, any Arab leader has the right to committ suicide, but not the right to "suicide" his own people in the process. Ruling over a people; any people, is a responsibility, and their welfare comes before their suicide.

The Arabs must like the treatment they receive at the hands of the US/Israeli axis. They may as well keep the sign on their back that says “Kick me, I like it…ahhh, kick me again, that feels so good…ahhh, do it again…and again…” Is this the Sunni form of self flagellation that is performed by the Shiites, whipping themselves on the back?

I think Rick, your good self assumes that the Arab world, can switch on and of alliances as it pleases when it pleases, which is really not the case. Secondly, your good self assumes that, there is a new alliance system in the making to challenge the US unipolar power, which is not apparent still, and thirdly, you assume that, the Arabs would want to join such a hypothetical system of alliance, because it would serve better their interests; which may well be not true.

…the Palestinians and the Arabs are at the mercy of the US/Israeli alliance and have no choice but to accept the status quo because of the incompetence and graft of Arab leaders over the past six decades. Israeli settlement expansion and persecution of Palestinians will continue unabated in the near future. The best that can be done in the here and now is an announcement of a shift in direction and alliances for the future. This is likely to have a profound effect in itself. A steep and immediate increase in the price of a barrel of oil is appropriate under the current circumstances.

Everything is possible Rick. The porblem is with the here and now and not so distant future. There are urgent questions which need to be resolved, before more deaths and destruction occure.

The process will not occur over night but will be gradual and long lasting. Make clear immediately from the outset that the US/Israeli imperialistic actions in the region are the motivation; e.g. occupation of Palestine, invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, threatened attack on Iran, etc, etc, etc. Switch alliances from the west to the SCO. End dependence on US armaments and switch to Russian and Chinese. The impact will be huge and how could the US/Israeli axis respond? Threaten to invade and occupy the entire Arab/Persian world until it yields to US/Israeli demands? Hardly.

With the presence of so many US bases and troops in the region Rick, and the total dependence of the region on American armaments, what your good self is calling for, is a war against the US and the west, in whcih the balance of power indicates, that the Arabs will loose in no uncertain terms. We will not only have Palestine to worry about then, but many other emerging Palestines. I am afraid your ptoposal is really too farfetched.

Cut off the electricity…no energy imports…no hot water shower in the morning…no gas in the SUV tank…that will get their attention.

in the cycle of endless violence and destitution Rick. if the Arab peace-seekers are to be praised, it is for their efforts to restore dignity and honour to the palesitnian people. The whole world has guaranteed the establishment of a Palesitnian state, so what can the Arab peace-seekers do more than, hold the international community to its word?.

You praise those countries which are trying to find a solution for the Palestinians to “live in Palestine rather than die in it” Khairi, a laudable goal provided that the Palestinians can live with honor and dignity. The present situation, in which the Israelis can take as much Palestinian land as they want, any time they want, ration water to the Palestinians at a rate that does not meet minimum health requirements, limit commerce to the point of killing economic activity, and so on…, does not provide a life worth living. It is better to die resisting this type of illegal occupation. I know that’s easy for me to say…but apparently it is also the reality for the people on the ground in Palestine. And the Palestinians would not have to die in the effort to provide for a life with basic human dignity for their children if the corrupt Arab collaborators would just join with the Iranians in putting airtight sanctions on the flow of energy to the west. How much of the Israeli’s energy usage is imported…80%...90%? How long could the US maintain its hegemony over the region when the Persian Gulf oil shipments are shut down?

What the Arab people need Rick, is peace and stability, and not, more war and turmoil.

…yepper, when the Arab countries of the region allow the US/Israeli axis to pursue its hegemonic interests in the region, it is the fault of those Arab leaders who permit this to happen at the expense of their poor people. Of course these same Arab leaders are living high on the hog for the moment on the billions of US foreign aid that is pumped into their coffers like clock work each year. But look out for the future. As alluded to by Shiveh, the common people are as likely to rise up and overthrow these corrupt leaders in Arab countries as they are in Iran.

Your good self is absolutely correct Shiveh, I must clarify that, when I talk about Iran I am talking about the regime and its attitude and not the Iranian people. Also, I must say again that, Iran will pursue its own national interest even at the detriment of the national interests of others, if it feels that its aspirations will go unchallenged and undettered. Indeed, there was a point in which Iran did feel desperate, and that was during the US invasion of Iraq while the talk was still of regime change in the area. Tehran did try to reach a compromise with the Bush adminsitration then, which shows bluntly, that once Iran percieves that the threats against it are tangible and real, it will listen.

When hegemony is the aim Rick, influence is the instrument. Funny that Iran's Islamic duty includes facilitating the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan; two Islamic countries. There are over 57 Islamic countries with 1.3 billion Muslims, and Iran coincidentally, finds it convenient to put its Islamic duty in places which serve its own national interest. One is not saying that Iran has no right to pursue its hegemonistic national interest, rather, it is the fault of others when they allow that to happen at their own expense. Unfortunately your good self paraises Iran; which wants to fight Israel until the last Palestinian, and condemn those countries which aim at, finding a solution for the Palestinians to live in Palestine rather than die in it.

Dear Khairi, there is very little about Iran’s “foreign policy” that I agree with. It is waste of money and effort to interfere with matters that should not concern Iran. But I believe everything that mullahs are doing is of defensive nature. They clearly saw the writing on the wall when US attacked Afghanistan and Iraq and they took counter measures based on the belief that they can not win a war with America but can make it too expensive for US to try. They are buying friends where ever they can find them because like any other tyrant their basic desire is to hold on to power by all means possible. It is helpful to make this distinction that they do not represent all of Iranians. Great majority in Iran would stop the flow of money and forgo the influence it buys if they could. And I believe they will when they eventually can. // I do not see your choice of words as far off, only that where you may see an offending bully, I see only a scared animal.

I would say influence is a better word to use than hegemony Khairi. After all, the reason for this influence is that they are supporting the Hamas and Hezbollah freedom fighters in Palestine and Lebanon, the opposition to the US/Israeli axis of occupiers, as all good Muslims in the region should be doing; in sharp contrast to the appeasers and collaborators who occupy the seats of power in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.

I don't know what other choice of words I can use Shiveh, considering Iran's influence in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, and in Gaza, not to mention of course, its trouble making potential in the Gulf states, in addition to Yemen, which is likely very soon, to accuse Iran officially of interference in its conflict with the {Huthis}.

…what leads you to say this Khairi?

dear Shiveh, the way the Iranian revolution matured, was through moving on from the export of the revolution, to an unmistakable hegemonic position in the ragion, and possibly beyond. Indeed, both Japan and Germany did pick up after serious destruction, but they did so after the US poured in its financial support, because of fear of North Korean threats at the time in the first instance, and Soviet Communism in the second. One would say that, the next step depends on how the US does actually define its own realism in the face of the Iranian regime's definition of national interest.

Dear Khairi, there is a natural process imbedded in revolutions which happen in old rusty countries. The misery forces people to wake up. Blood that is so frequently shed opens the eyes to what matters and people learn to rely on themselves and push each other and country over hurdles. Revolutions force their victims to mature fast and people who were denied their rights – as revolutions so often do – learn the price and value of freedom. Iran is following this path. With the memory of Persian greatness kept vivid in the eyes of Iranian youth, and with the self confidence and knowledge they have acquired, they want and are able to reach new heights. This process can’t be stopped. // You give US two choices, destroy or yield. This assumes that the present stage of development of Iranians is the final stage and they’ll always want to harmfully influence their neighbors and beyond. I beg to differ. I see Iran maturing enough to become an economic hob rather than a militaristic power in the region. You are correct about the future of the Velayat in Iran; it dies with Khamenei - although they may try Shahroudi for a while but it’s time has already passed. The “militaristic period” if comes will be short lived. The youth are the future of Iran. They do not care for religion as much as their parents did, and even mullahs can’t keep their children away from attractions of modernity. US may very well decide to bomb Iran but the true power of a country is in her people not brick and cement. Germany and Japan lost the World War, but you wouldn’t know it, looking at them now. // Let’s hope that Middle East matures alongside Iran and there won’t be a desire to pull her down, rather to pull up with her.

I suppose so long as we don’t talk in terms of the alleged Churchillian dictum of “ feed the Arabs, starve the Persians”, anything we all say is passable. The problem with Iran is not really in whether this regime stays or is overthrown by outside machinations or internal revolution, rather, with the manner Iran has defined its national strategic interest, and the manner it will continue to do so. For the first time, the world; especially the superpowers, witness a new phenomenon in which a Near Eastern country, actually defines its national strategic interest beyond the circumference of its neighbourhood. The closest any country from the region came to doing that, was Hashemite Iraq, when late prime minister Nuri al Saeed defined Iraq’s national interest extending to the borders of the Soviet Union. Even Nasser’s United Arab Republic did not come close to the ambitious definition of Iran regarding its national interest. Therefore, in this respect one believes that, Iran is truly a new phenomenon on the international scene, moreover, it is acting with the pretensions of not only a regional power, but also a super-power. It is not only a Gulf power, but actually is also a Mediterranean power now, with an arch that envelopes all the oil rich Arab states within its Shiite Crescent, threatening at the same time the national security of Jordan, Egypt and Israel, and with potential capability to expand its influence to the “Stans” of the ex-Soviet Union, as well as Afghanistan. A regime with such an extension and influence, is not likely to give up such gains merely because others wish that to happen. Also, it is a folly to think that the current regime in Iran will be willing to negotiate its nuclear programme, which is essentially, the leitmotif of the status of a super-power. In addition, any regime which potentially replaces the current one, will not give up on the gains made by the current regime, nor will negotiate its nuclear programme. Therefore, the only two options for the US are, either accept Iran as a partner, and build its foreign policy on the basis of such realism, or, go to war against Iran and hit it hard, to make it impossible for Iran to pick the pieces of power after that, and even, make it more impossible for any replacement of the current regime to be able to contemplate any such current pretensions. At the same time, what is the status of the institution of Velyati-Faqih in all this?. I don’t think anyone can seriously think that, a change of regime, or the current regime would change its nature, so long as the leadership of Veli-Faqih remains as the main arbiter in Iranian politics. However, the Mullah vs. Mullah conflict which is still going on in Iran, indicates that the position is no longer held as, sacrosanct any longer. As a matter of fact, and one is making a wild bet on this, I dare say that Ayattullah Khamina’I is most likely to be the last office holder in this institutions, because Iran will gradually slip into a military and security controlled regime, with a religious veneer only. Even any potential replacement, I don’t think will be different to the character which the current regime will evolve into. Khairi janbek.paris/france

Rick, old animosities are prevalent in the region and not only among Persians and Arabs. Just imagine what cousins can do if they combine Jewish know how with Arab muscle and wealth. In a nutshell let me say that main problem in the Middle East is lack of maturity. It is just too easy to move masses to any which way that their rulers want. Add that to the great divide between what is good for the masses and what keeps their rulers in power and you’ll see that the real mayhem is local. They are really doing it to themselves. Sorry to have to say that harm inflicted by western dominance is a natural side effect of immature local behavior.

In a way it is good to know that the present lack of Arab/Persian trust is due to the ancient (and ongoing) struggle for domination rather than trivial religious differences. Nevertheless they must overcome this ancient hatred if they are to combine their resources and overcome domination by the US/Israeli axis. You mention that you have no idea what the next 10 to 20 years will bring. One thing is certain I think. The coming decades will bring world wide diminishing oil and natural gas resources, which will give the Middle East region enormous wealth and power if the leaders of the region can just get their act together and join forces with the SCO.

Dear Rick, The essence of Arab/Persian mistrust is not in the variations of their religion, it is formed by two millennia of bloody conflicts for domination. Persians, Arabs and later Turks have been fighting each other for centuries before Europeans extended their influence and changed the balance of power. The old animosity and mistrust that Khairi notes still exists and it was most evident in Iran/Iraq war. But I do not think the West can afford to let the balance of power in the Middle East change so much that any single country be able to dominate the region. Only enough will be allowed to necessitate purchase of outdated weaponry by oil rich countries of the region. // Dear Khairi, you are correct as always. The best alternative for Arab rulers is a regime that does not challenge their rule. Naturally, Arab ruler’s main concern is to stay in power. Islamic fundamentalism, may it be Shia version influenced by Iran or Sunni of the kind that Ekhvan are advertising, constitutes one end of the pendulum of danger that can topple them, the other end touches on the eventual awakening of Arab people to their rights and possibilities. All Arab rulers must keep the balance between enough Islam to hold their people back and enough modernity to keep them away from fundamentalism. Iranian regime is only one aspect of this threat. Sunni fundamentalism, the danger within, may prove to be the bigger threat.

in the manner iran intends to define its national interest, as well as with the concept of velayati-Faqih. What would be preferable for the Gulf Arab regimes and probably even beyond, is a regime in Tehran which is pro-American; for their own safety and security. During the time of the Shah, they all accepted the Shah's hegemony over the region; albeit grudgingly, and saw it even as more favourable to the regime in Iraq; which they considered as the main threat to their stability. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will view the regime in Iran with less anxiety than they already do. Moreover, the Arab world is suffering a problem from its own Sunni extremism; and although the Sunni-Shi'i differences is a new phenomenon after a break of many centuries, the Arab leaders take the unpredictability of decisions coming from the office of Ayattullah Khamina'i very seriously. It is not easy for the Arab leaders to contend with a powerfull Iran under the current regime, without knowing how this regime will react at any one point in the near future.

Khairi and I were feeling very lonely. Although obviously not as knowledgeable about the region as your good self and my good friend Khairi; I agree with you that the Arab/Persian poor relations are not so much due to a few small Persian Gulf islands, though they are important, but rather the ancient and unfortunate competition between the Shiite and Suni branches of Islam. It is a disaster for all Muslims everywhere that this silly (in my view) difference of opinion over religion gives the west and the US/Israeli axis of bully boys so much power to dominate the region.

Dear Khairi, I think it was you who reopened this blog after a brief closing. Unfortunately Postglobal main board isn’t as fortunate. // Your read of Iran’s future looks probable based on recent events. But I’m hopeful that change is inevitably coming. I can not even guess how the world will look in 10-20 years but am reasonably confident that Iranians are increasingly resistant to any form of dictatorship. Revolutions throughout history have brought hardship, misery, resolve, self confidence, ingenuity, progress and eventually maturity to the people. Iran is on the same path. // It is hard to believe that any country can expand territory in the Middle East (other than may be Israel in a perfect storm.) The concerns of Arab countries over Iranian hegemony are unwarranted. Nothing has really changed in this regard since Sadam’s experience in Kuwait. The world is still too important to be left to the locals! UAE, Bahrain and others should feel safe, at least till China consumes Taiwan!!

Dear Shiveh, I am glad you still have the time to join us over here, I mean this becoming embaressingly Rick-Khairi show. I wish DRG/Washington Post would actually be more proactive about what they intend to do with this blog. It is such a pitty to leave it to me, but of course not such a pitty to leave to Rick. As for the subject matter, I am sure your good self is aware, that for the UAE the occupation of the islands poses a problem, and Bahrain is very nervous about, even, the slightest remarks emanating from Tehran towards it. In effect all the Gulf Arab states are very much worried about how Iran defines its national interest, and to what extent it will materialise its hegemony over the region. That icludes Kuwait as well as Saudi Arabia also. In the mean time, Iran has done nothing to alleviate the suspicions and the fears of its neighbours. I think the future of Iran will be dictated as time goes on, by a quasi-military dictatorship with religious veneer, more than a theocracy.

Dear Khairi, It is good to see that you and Rick are still using this site. It would have been a good Idea if Postglobal had kept the main forum also open. // I’m sure you are aware of deep scars governing Arab/Persian psyche. The Islands you mention have little to do with it. Bahrain used to be part of Iran before the British occupied it. After they left, it became independent through a referendum that Iran honored. The other islands also always belonged to Iran. In any case they are too close to Iran to be logically clamed by a 4 decades old country on the other side of the Persian Gulf. Mistrust between Arabs and Persians are at least as old as Islam. Ownership of handful of Islands did not start and could not end it. // Conflict among the clergy in Iran is deeper than it shows. The events planed for the coming Ashoura may change the balance. We could see mullah against mullah, pasdar fighting pasdar and army also may show life again. Ahmadinejad gang is not very stable and I believe the West is also putting more hope in this scenario than sanctions or direct attack.

…what is in its best interest. Amnesty International on Friday warned that Iraq's plans to move an Iranian opposition group to a former desert detention camp in the country's remote south would put them at risk of arbitrary arrest and torture. Iraq's Shiite-led government has taken an increasingly hard line toward the People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran, not wanting to risk its warming relations with its powerful Shiite neighbor Iran.

it is not so simple for the Arab world, which finds itself between Israel; an occupying power, and Iran; another opccupying power of islands belonging to the UAE, and constantly threatening the sovereignity of Bahrain. The paradigm of Iranian interference in Iraq, has not gone unnoticed by the Arab world generally, and the Gulf Arabs particularly. Therefore, no Arab country can claim to know what are Iran's future intentions; especially again the Gulf Arabs. Hence, the constant unease in the Arab world, that the US might actually strike a deal with Iran eventually, at their own expense.

…is just that Khairi… just talk…; i.e. the release of hot air. An upcoming meeting by five world powers on trying to curb Iran's nuclear program has been canceled on China's request, senior officials from three of the countries involved said Monday. Russia in recent days has moved away from suggesting it would support tougher sanctions. And recent statements from Chinese officials indicate that Beijing has not changed its traditional opposition to new sanctions. ___ It beats me Khairi why the Arab countries keep siding with the west in the feud with Iran. It would be much more in their interest to join with Iran, Russia and China to confront the US/Israeli axis of belligerent bully boys.

does not rule out the possibility of the 5+1 reaching an gareement with Iran, but at the same, time he tried to alleviate the Gulf Arab fears, that such an agreement might be at their own expense. There is a great worry in the Gulf; and even beyond, that the US may eventually accept Iran's hegemony of the region, therefore, perhaps it is not such a bad idea, for the 5+1, to accept representatives of those countries to join in the meetings with Iran.

What can I say Rick?, the man is with his creator now, where no eulogy or condemnation can do him good or harm. Everyone knows, the Kingdom has one master.

Did you know Gen. Saad Kheir Khairi? He was the brilliant but emotionally wounded spymaster who headed Jordan's General Intelligence Department (GID) from 2000 to 2005. He died in a hotel room in Vienna on Wednesday of a heart attack, the official Jordanian news agency reported. He was just 56 years old. ___ David Ignatius writes about him in today’s WP: “I got to know Kheir five years ago when I was researching a novel about the Middle East called "Body of Lies," which was later made into a movie that starred Leonardo DiCaprio. Kheir was the model for my fictional Jordanian intelligence chief, "Hani Salaam." Like all GID chiefs, Kheir was addressed by the Ottoman honorific of "pasha," so I gave the sobriquet of "Hani Pasha" to my fictional version.” ___ “Like many Arab intelligence services, the GID has a reputation for using brutal interrogation methods, and I'm sure that it didn't get the nickname "the fingernail factory" for nothing.” ____ Sounds like our CIA. ___ “Kheir ran afoul of his boss, King Abdullah, when he began pushing into politics and business. It was the classic overreach of intelligence chiefs in the Middle East, and he was sacked in 2005. His dismissal took a cruel toll: Kheir could be seen carousing late at night at his favorite restaurant in Amman, no longer a master of the universe or even, fully, master of himself. But in his prime, he was a genius, and it's hard to think of a foreigner who helped save more American lives than Saad Pasha.”

There ain't no middle ground.

Well, I assume Rick, President Obama feels now, that the Iraqis have become good guys; so they no longer need further lessons in goodness, while the Afghans, naughty bunch of people still need lessons of US goodness, albeit mixed with lead.

Yep Khairi, we think there are two kinds of people in the world: (1) good people and (2) bad people. “Good” means: anyone who is on our side. “Bad” means: anyone who is against our side. There is zero consideration of morality whatsoever in those evaluations, as they denote one’s faction exclusively. “We” (the side with which the person is assumed to identify) are never “bad.” ___ Actually we have to give Obama credit for telegraphing throughout his campaign that he would get our troops out of Iraq and send them to fight the real war which was supposedly according to him in Afghanistan.

it was a straightforward Manichian world view of international affairs. Now, after much oratory subterfuge, what all boils down to, is again a Manichian world view. Remember the game Rick?, will the real President Obama stand up please?.

Idealistic-realism, what would be the synthesis Rick, of this contradiction in terms?. I remember all hell broke loose when former President Bush mentioned the term crusade, but it passes totally unnoticed, when President Obama refers to St. Augistine's jus ad bellum.

Yep, he went before a committee of peace to make a case for "just wars." One wonders, by the way, if so much of this speech would have been dominated by the case for war had he not JUST ordered the deployment of 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. In short, he attempted to promote his foreign policy ideology -- "idealistic realism." ___ Is he maturing Khairi, or just accepting the limitations of the office?

I suppose, Rick, between the Cairo Speech and the Oslo Speech, President Obama has moved from utopianism to realism. Is he maturing on the job?.

Islam is actually a French religion now, but I am not sure if President Sarkozy wants to convert or not !!.

Oh no, now what can we do…? “Faced with swelling unease over the place of Muslim immigrants in France, President Nicolas Sarkozy called Tuesday for tolerance among native French people but warned that arriving Muslims must embrace Europe's historical values and avoid "ostentation or provocation" in the practice of their religion…” writes Edward Cody in today’s WP. Be careful Khairi…we don’t want any ostentatious worshiping by Muslims going on around here… Who knows… we may have to ban women’s burqas and minarets on mosques in France as was done in Switzerland.

I think if the US government manages to narrow down its interests to the micro-level, in both Afghanistan and Iraq, it might have a better perception for planning how to move on.

Rick, is that, I don't think the Obama administration has made up its mind yet. I think it could easily go either way on Iran.

Fareed Zakaria’s column in today’s WP says that President Obama is no Winston Churchill in that he wants to narrow our projection of power abroad and focus on our interests here at home. ___ “For his policy to succeed, Obama will need to maintain his focus come July 2011. Afghanistan will not be transformed by that date. It will not look like France, with a strong and effective central government. The gains that will have been made will be fragile. The situation will still be somewhat unstable. But that should still be the moment to begin the transition to Afghan rule. We can find ways to secure American interests in that region more manageably. By the end of 2011, the United States will have spent 10 years, thousands of lives and $2 trillion trying to create stable, democratic governments in Iraq and Afghanistan, two of the most difficult, divided countries in the world. It will be time to move on.” ___ Amen to that brother.

…Your good self’s theory says that President Obama may attack Iran, or then again he may not. It is pretty hard to argue against such a theory. My theory is more assertive and says that President Obama will not attack Iran, because he is no fool. He will anger Israel in the process as the Harvard Simulation shows but who cares.

I don't think that much has changed Rick, and I believe my old theory still stands, to the effect that President Obama will continue negotiations with Iran, until such a time that he may be able to say that; it is no longer feasable to attack Iran militarily, or, prepare the US public opinion after having seemingly exhausted or options with Iran, to lauch an attack.

…and Team America is the loser says David Ignatius in his WP column today. He is talking about a simulation game played at Harvard last week: Iran will be closer to having the bomb, and America will fail to obtain tough U.N. sanctions; diplomatic relations with Russia, China and Europe will be strained; and Israel will be threatening unilateral military action. The Iranian team wound up with Russia and China as its diplomatic protectors. And the Israeli team ended in a sharp break with Washington. ___ [It sounds about right to me Khairi.]___ By the December 2010 hypothetical endpoint, Iran had doubled its supply of low-enriched uranium and was pushing ahead with weaponization.

Irrespective Rick, of American Zionist organisations' influence, the recent Pew survey says; 63% of Amercicans would support the use of force against Iran to prevent nuclear weapons. That seems very convenient if President Obama wants to change horses in mid-stream, and 68% of Republicans and 43% of Democrats say that they sympathise with Israel more than the palestinians, while a 41% plurality say that they sympathise with both sides equally. Again very convenient for President Obama to maintain his current course.

Thanks for the tip Khairi. I just read Prof. Walt’s article that you reference at ForeignPolicy.com and find it very interesting. I agree 100% with Prof. Walt. As he says, “…they [the Zionist lobby] seek to discourage independent-minded people from expressing their views openly, lest doing so derail their own career prospects later on. And it works. Even if the lobby doesn't manage to block every single appointment, they can make any administration think twice about a potentially "controversial" choice and use the threat to stifle open discourse among virtually all members of the mainstream foreign policy community (and certainly anyone who aspires to public service in Washington). The result, of course, is the U.S. Middle East policy (and U.S. foreign policy more generally) is reserved for those who are either steadfastly devoted to the "special relationship" or who have been intimidated into silence. The result? U.S. policy remains in the hands of the same set of "experts" whose policies for the past seventeen years (or more) have been a steady recipe for failure. If a few more Americans read Ha'aretz, they might start to figure this out.” ___ Well said. This is also why President Obama was forced to do an abrupt about face on his demand that settlement construction be halted.

Would your good self say Rick, that the US; officially as well as popularly has avdicated the formulation of its outlook vis a vis Israel, in favour of a pretender group called the American Zionists?. Prof. Walt quotes Ha'aretz article by Natasha Muzkavaya; 5.12.2009 " Every appointee to the Amercian government must endure a thorough background check by the American Jewish community. In the case of Obama's government in particular, every criticism against Israel made by a potential government employee has become a catalyst for debate about whether appointing another leftist offers proof that Obama does not truly support Israel".

Since we are aware Rick, that there is a civil war going on in Afghanistan, between a dispicably corrupt regime, and a dispicably extremist organisation, and since we are aware also that, President Obama has said that, the surge in Afghanistan is supposed to stop al Qaeda from returning to the country; indicating that al Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan, then Presidnet Obama has alligened himself to a dispicably corrupt regime, in order to fight an equally dispicable extremist movement, in order to prop up the former and bend rather than break the latter, in the hope of creating a power-sharing arrangement between two dispicable parties. The common denominator here; is the word dispicable.